Asad Rizvi
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
Last
week trading active have been mixed caused by Syrian tension, thin activity was
noted due to illiquid market condition that helped US Dollar to gain strength.
But Gold, OIL, JPY, Swiss Franc and US Bond gains eased, as market sensed that
strike on Syria could be delayed due to lack of support from UK Parliament
voting against support of military attack. Stiff resistance from Russia and UN report
due to be released after 10-days, on the Syrian issue have also helped
Greenback to maintain strong tone.
Recent
development suggest that US could possibly go for a short military strike on
Syria and if this happens to be true, market will have short negative reaction.
Emerging market could face another pounding before easing of Geo-Political
condition that may bring sigh of relief. However, prolong conflict will have
adverse impact on the overall financial market.
Release
of Economic report from USA was mixed too, as it showed sharp revision in
growth, but data also showed that consumers was spending less and sentiment
dropping. Market must be wondering that despite better showing of US economic
numbers and close call on tapering why US Dollar is unable to make good gains?
This
is surly because of improved performance by the Euro region’s economy though
Spain, Italy, Portugal and few others countries remains a suspect. Germany has
taken the lead in helping region’s economy to prosper. Despite consistent
economic growth in recent months, there is a fear of softer ECB stance if
economy slowdowns, as European Central Bank cannot afford to take the risk of another
recession. ECB approach on its policy stance on Thursday will provide further
guidance, as market will try to figure out that if its maintains its Dovish
stance or not.
But
investor’s confidence level in Euro-zone is high due to economic stability and
meltdown in emerging market, as recent data suggest that in last 3-months repatriation
of funds and investments in the regions equity market is heavy reaching nearly
Euro 150 billion or USD 200 billion. This is one big factor that has created
demand for the European currency. Now, unless there is fear of contagion or spillover
effect after FED tapering or European economy further deteriorates, Euro may
give resistance to USD though may struggle to retain strength, but Euro will
certainly remain strong against crosses currencies though may not have enough courage
to show muscles against FED tapering.
We
are heading for an important week, as news from Syria will be dominated important
economic events that will include decision on interest rates by RBA, ECB &
ECB. Some of the other major economic events of the week are release of data’s from
Europe and USA, but Friday’s release of US job data will be the key driving
factor that will guide market for FED’s next policy stance schedule to meet on Sept
17-18. However, since New York is closed on Monday, therefore thin activity is
expected, unless there is news of unusual activity in the Middle Eastern
region.
GOLD @ $ 1394.55
= It
was another excellent week in terms of our call for gold to exhaust around $ 1430,
as it did fall to test $ 1392 levels, holding above $ 1380-85 levels.
For
next week the bias should be on the downside, as any up move should be
opportunity to sell. The level that needs attention is $ 1415-20 zones, which
is less likely to happen, as $ 1408-10 should act as barrier for a test and
break of $ 1380 that should pave way for $ 1365. A fall below would confirm a
move towards $ 1338. However, upside break would risk for a test $ 1458.
EURO @ 1.3219 = Euro saw a
perfect minor up move to hit the target 1.3410 before falling to test the given
level of 1.3240 and breaching the downside.
This
week I am expecting stiff resistance around 1.3260-80 zones and only break
would encourage a move towards 1.3320 or 1.3390. However, a clear break of 1.3140
is required for a move towards 1.3085 or 1.3050. Range for the week 1.3020 –
1.3390.
GBP @ 1.5494 = The expected move
did occur, as Cable could not surpass resistance level of 1.5650 and saw a fine
hit of target 1.5450.
This
week initially Cable is likely to hold around 1.5410 levels for a gradual up move
towards 1.5520-40, but unless breaks 1.5570, Cable could dip again to re-test and
break 1.5410 for 1.5350. Breach of resistance could see a push towards 1.5640.
Range for week 1.5320-1.5680.
JPY
@ 98.10 = Japanese currency did break on the downside and briefly
tested 99.09, but the move was not very impressive as the currency made sharp
gains to breach the higher side of my weekly band to test 96.87.
However, since there are many factors driving the currency, this week once
again Yen will remain choppy. The level to watch is 97.20-40 should not surpass
or else could test 96.70-80. I am expecting a move and break of 98.80-90 for
99.60. Range for the week 96.40 – 99.80.
AUD
@ 0.8893 = The pressure on Aussie is likely to continue as
long as 0.8980-90 levels hold for a move towards 0.8830. Break risk for 0.8750
or else 0.9050. Range for the week 0.8720 – 0.9050.DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
GOLD @ $ 1395 = Pick to Sell around $ 1395-98. Stops $ 1403
ReplyDeleteCurrencies View unchanged.............
ReplyDeleteIf short Yen book your profit 99.25-35..
Its a slow day.............
sir what about now??
ReplyDeleteNow what ????????????????????
ReplyDeletesir what about aud now??
ReplyDeletein a a thin market condition there is noth much to suggest, the gain was followed yby Chinese PMI. Hovering around top somewheere near 0.9020-30 and trade in a 0.8940-0.9030 band until tomorrow's RBA MPS........
ReplyDeleteand what abt gbp sir any selling area or wait??
ReplyDeleteRange 1.5540-1.5620 for next 3-4 hours...........
ReplyDeleteOk pals, Cheers until tomorrow.......................
ReplyDelete