Asad Rizvi
Last week, the biggest economic event was the release of US jobs data that showed minor drop against expectation of 173.000 job gains, which fell by 4.000 and the unemployment rate falling to 7.3 pct caused by low participation, which is lowest since 1978. The bigger cause of damage to the positive US growth sentiment was downward revision of June and July jobs by 74.000. This also means the economic erformance in 3rd quarter was a bit disappointing despite improvement in jobs data.
"URGENT"
Dear all,
Appologies for being absent tomorrow, which was important day.
Although I was back from meeting, half an hour after the release
of Joba Data, it was my BLOG that was creating problem. I
was neither able top make a post, nor was getting access to my
Blog. I am not sure if was facing same problem.
However, for next time please note that in such an emergency
situation, I will be tweeting signals through Twitter and will try to
update on another website, which I use for advertisement purpose.
Therefore, you are requested to please join me on TWITTER @asadcmka
or I become active and inter-act with you on WEB-SITE http://asadcmka.wordpress.com/
You are requested to please join me on Twitter and Bookmark the web-site.
You should also e-mail me your query on trendteller@gmail.com and in worst
case I can & Tweet you on your query. In this way though there could be minor
delay, but we all will be in touch with each other with query and signals.
I would once again like to apologise for the inconvenience caused to you.
Regards
Asad Rizvi
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
Last week, the biggest economic event was the release of US jobs data that showed minor drop against expectation of 173.000 job gains, which fell by 4.000 and the unemployment rate falling to 7.3 pct caused by low participation, which is lowest since 1978. The bigger cause of damage to the positive US growth sentiment was downward revision of June and July jobs by 74.000. This also means the economic erformance in 3rd quarter was a bit disappointing despite improvement in jobs data.
If
we look at the monthly average jobs data for 2013, it is still hovering around 180.000,
which is not a bad number. I think drop in jobs numbers could be blessing in
disguise for Fed, as it gets closer to its initial target of 7 pct US unemployment
rate. At a time when the Syrian uncertainty is looming over the head, softer
jobs data provides space to start tapering with smaller number, say around $ 10-20
billion, though bigger number could be shocker.
In
another important development during world leaders G-20 nation meeting at St. Petersburg
in Russia, they felt the urgency to tackle global economic problems putting growth
and job creation on top of their priority list with special focus on developing
nations.
This
is a clear shift of change in language/strategy to deceive and nothing else, as
pervious theme was austerity/deficit/tax that did not bring the desired level
of change in numbers. Capitalization of Banking Sector in Europe is an
unresolved issue. The austerity theme has clearly backfired as rising
unemployment does not support the idea of cut in spending. Deficit remains at a
very high level because of the shortfall in revenues collection, as business
did not grow.
Hence,
G-20 nations opted to raise new slogan of “Growth and Jobs Creation”.
Interestingly austerity, deficit, tax, growth and Jobs creation are all
inter-connected with each other and no progress is possible if the economy lacks
to perform in one single area. The major factor behind the entire success story
in US & Europe is due to injection of free money to banks, financial
institutions and hedge funds and extension of maturities by increasing the
duration or else nothing has changed in real sense.
In
fact the tapering talk by Fed has already given shiver to most of the emerging
market forcing Indonesia to raise its rates. Brazil raised its interest tares
twice by 50 basis points in July & August and Turkey was forced to raise
its rates for 1st time in almost 2-years to defend its currency. While
India’s RBI took a big move by using its monetary tool on July 16 by increasing
banks short term cost of borrowing through Marginal Standing Facility (MSF)
rate and Bank Rate each by 200 basis points (2 Pct) to make Rupee less
attractive, which is not working in favor of Indian Rupee.
This
week market will once again start focusing on various Fed officials speeches
and will be looking at the US economic data’s. Tapering in September would
confirm that it was a pre-planned FED strategy to start its unwinding program
and the economy had little to contribute towards the FED move unless it worsens.
I think if we look at the 10-year US bond yield at 2.90 pct, which gives a
better picture about the trend due to the size of bond market, it points
towards tapering. Basically the question on tapering is when, not if, September
or later. This time Fed language will be of key relevance about its forward
guidance strategy and Chairman Bernanke’s press conference could add the spice.
Later next month, Fed minutes will provide more clarity on the subject.
GOLD @ $1390.65
=
It was another successful week, as my gold target of $ 1365 was met with ease. Though
payroll fell this week, I do not see any reason for further gold gains unless Syrian
unrest flares-up. Hence, any up move should be short-lived.
Identical
strategy is recommended for next week. On the upside only break $ 1408 would
risk for $ 1420. However, fall below $ 1375-80 will encourage for more losses,
break of $ 1345-50 is required for a test of $ 1335.
EURO @ 1.3177 = As per expectation
Euro met with strong resistance and failed to surpass 1.3260 to hit the lows of
1.3105. Trading remained within a narrow band, as market is still trying to determine
the trend.
Despite
fall in US jobs, Euro could not make big gains and initially should remain
under pressure. In the absence of any major data trading will be held on technicals.
Euro may continue to struggle to move beyond 1.3260-80 and only break would
encourage for a test of 1.3330 levels, which is not a preferred move. See risk
for a break of 1.3080-90 levels for 1.3020-40 or possibly 1.2955. Range for the
week 1.2950 – 1.3380.
GBP @ 1.5623 = Last week Cable
succeeded in gaining upside momentum after penetrating 1.5570 levels to hit and
surge beyond target 1.5640 to test topside of the range.
This
week, initially, Cable should find buyers around 1.5550 levels for a move and
test of a 1.5690-95 levels and needs to clear for 1.5740, which may not be
possible on 1st attempt. If breaks support levels could hit 1.5440. However,
any move towards 1.5750 zones would be opportunity to short cable. Range for week
1.5520-1.5750.
JPY
@ 99.08 = Last week, I did warn that there are many factors driving
Japanese currency. It did touch the highs of the range and briefly test 100.25
levels before gaining sharply.
In the absence of any news from Syria, Yen should gradually lose its strength
or else any negative news of flare-up could see rush for JPY buying as a safe haven
currency. The levels to watch is 98.20, as long as it does not break, there is
possibility for another test of 100.30-50 zones. Failing to hold the resistance
level of 98.20 on Syrian news would risk for 97.45 or 95.70
Range for the week 98.20 – 100.80.
Range for the week 98.20 – 100.80.
AUD
0.9177 = Aussie up move was against my expectation. But this
rally should not surpass 0.9270-80 levels for a down move or else will test
0.9320. I am expecting a gradual dip. AUD needs to break 0.9105 for a test of 0.9050
or 0.9010. Range for the week 0.8980– 0.9320.
"URGENT"
Dear all,
Appologies for being absent tomorrow, which was important day.
Although I was back from meeting, half an hour after the release
of Joba Data, it was my BLOG that was creating problem. I
was neither able top make a post, nor was getting access to my
Blog. I am not sure if was facing same problem.
However, for next time please note that in such an emergency
situation, I will be tweeting signals through Twitter and will try to
update on another website, which I use for advertisement purpose.
Therefore, you are requested to please join me on TWITTER @asadcmka
or I become active and inter-act with you on WEB-SITE http://asadcmka.wordpress.com/
You are requested to please join me on Twitter and Bookmark the web-site.
You should also e-mail me your query on trendteller@gmail.com and in worst
case I can & Tweet you on your query. In this way though there could be minor
delay, but we all will be in touch with each other with query and signals.
I would once again like to apologise for the inconvenience caused to you.
Regards
Asad Rizvi
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
Sir any comment on aud after election result for medium term??
ReplyDeletepd, the win by LPA party in last week's Australian election was one factor that helped Aussies to recover, as he is expected to opt for aggressive fiscal reforms. His focus could be on mining sector and car industry. But mining sector mostly relies on foreign demand and growth in car industry is purely a domestic matter.
ReplyDeleteSo far AUD made 3 big figure gains, but the new government has to quickly announce its economic plans or AUD recovery could be short lived. this means election victory is for 4 to 5 cent gain, but not necessarily mean Australian economy will take big strides. The chances are that the rally could fizzle out if the newly elected fails to come with a solid plan.
Will keep you posted as there is more clarity about new governments strategy.
EURO @1.3198 = Sell around 1.3203-13. Stops 1.3250..........
ReplyDeletesir shall go short aud at 0.9220??
ReplyDeleteWatch out could test 0.9245-50 and beyond ....if holds 0.9170-80 levels
ReplyDeletesir about gold
ReplyDeleteI am not clear about the direcetion yen, though lookin for dip, but could surge with NYK entry.
ReplyDeleteAs you know that on Monday's I normally start slowy and try to build some profit before getting aggressive.......
sir shall go short gbp at 1.5675??
ReplyDeleteI don't like jumping in the middle of the range and go gainst the trend. i would prefer at a higher level, as see risk for minor breach of 1.57 levels............
ReplyDeletesir shall go long gold around 1382??
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1388.80 = Likley to hold $ 1385-86 for test of $ 1393-95............
ReplyDeleteTest of Euro 1.3225 & GBP 1.5715 possible
ReplyDeleteI am not recomending to buy Euro & GBP, if seen it is the level to sell....
ReplyDeleteEuro @ 1.3244 & GBP @ 1.5725 = Ok, sell or if Sold Stops 1.3265 & 1.5760
ReplyDeleteOk, do apply Stops if the move goes against sale of Euro & GBP. Do book profit as looking for 40-50 pip profit.
ReplyDeleteGold is still tricky as $ 1385-86 is the level to watch. Prefer staying way as both side move is possible. Howeevr upside should exhaust around $ 1395..........
Cheers until tomorrow.................