Tuesday, Sept 17

Asad Rizvi

It was an interesting start to the new week, as Larry Summers decided to withdraw himself from Fed Chairman's position for a possible replacement of Bernanke who is expected to step down on completion of his term in January gave hope that Dovish Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen stands better chance, as replacement and market reacted accordingly.

Basically the joyous moment was for the Doves looking/pleading FED not to scale down tomorrow. I am not sure that if this is a genuine wish, because if FED dose not announce tapering tomorrow it still has 3-more months to make a tapering call and how can we be sure that Bernanke is leaving, there could be a possibility that Larry Summers withdrew because Ben Bernanke may get an extension. But this how market gets confused and reacts.

Meanwhile, another big event after tomorrow is the German election that could still rattle the market. Though Merkel's CDU and SPD, two of the main German political parties could reach an understanding and Merkel is expected to be re-elected, but until agreement between two parties is fully reached, uncertainty will prevail in the European financial market, as Europe is too dependent on Merkel that suits Euro-zone's policy. It is said that inside lot of bickering takes place in German politics, as question of European bailout could once gain raise many eyebrows in Germany and this could be the real threat to European currency and regions financial market.

GMT 3:11 - GOLD @ $ 1314 = We could be heading for a choppy day, but strategy remains unchanged, pick top to sell. Break of of $1320 is required for a test of $ 1330-35 zones. However, may struggle to move beyond $ 1320-22 levels in Asia, which could push gold towards $ 1306-08 and break would encourage for a test of $ 1294-96 zones.

GMT 3:16 - EURO @ 1.3332 = may find a cap below 1.3370 and unless surpass 1,3395-00 levels, risk for a test and break of 1.3295-00 for a possible test of 1.3260.

GMT 3:20 - GBP @ 1.5893 = Bias remains on the upside 1.5860-70 should hold, but needs to break 1.5820-30 levels for more gains. however. 1.5830-40 should not surrender.

GMT 3:26 - JPY @ 99.27 = Japanese currency is likely to to remain weak as long as hold around 98.90 for a test of 99.75-85 zones before recovering for else 98.65

GMT 3:30 - AUD @ 0.9311 = The top is seen and Aussie should hold around 0.9535-50 levels for a test and break of 0.9280-90 zones for further fall. 0.94 remains key.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.