Monday Sept 30 - Oct 04

Asad Rizvi

As we are approaching October, market mood is gradually shifting from FED Tapering to US Debt Ceiling. Since last time market had to wait until deadline to reach an understanding on debt issue, this time President Obama may not have too much to worry because he is already enjoying his 2^nd term.

The tussle about increasing the limit and demand for another rollover will dominate the headlines as, the two political parties the Democrats and the Republicans would continue to debate and show their strength. If there is a shutdown that could become effective from October 01, which does not look a possibility, Washington administration may not wait for too long as delay can dent the US economic recovery and there could be a possibility that the President of USA may be forced to use his authority under 14^th amendment to run business as usual.

This week, I do not have too much to add about the US economic data, as there is lot of confusion about releasing of economic data because of potential shutdown that will become effective from Oct 01. Release of Non-Farm Payroll data due on Oct 04 is the most critical data of the week, since it is the only Non-Farm Payroll report available before the October FOMC meeting could be allowed to release despite shutdown.

Therefore, until settlement is reached market will remain nervous and choppy and lingering of matter would create more uncertainty. The delay would not support US Dollar. Neither would it help the stock market. Gold, Yen, GBP and US bond could be the real beneficiary in a tug of war like situation.

However, Italian government is faced with problems due to resignation from Berlusconi party minister’s resignation deciding to abandon collation partnership with the government. This could be confusing and for the moment may even take out gloss from European currency if unrest persist. We are definitely heading for another volatile week.

GOLD @ 1335.95 = We could be heading for a choppy and volatile month unless there is quick solution and clarity on the US debt issue. Caution and discipline is suggested as sharp both way moves may be unavoidable. Gold may initially finds support and hold above $ 1320 for a test of $ 1355-50 zones. Break risk for test of $ 1380-85 zones, which may even surpass $ 1400 is situation worsens. However, on the downside keep a close watch of $ 1302-08 levels break would encourage for a test of $ 1285-90 zones, which is vital to hold or else more losses will be unavoidable.

EURO @ 1.3520 = Euro is required to move beyond 1.3590-00 for a test of 1.3650, but may struggle to make gains due to Italian unrest. Euro could specially suffer against cross currencies. On the downside if 1.3440 surrenders then the European currency will find strong support around 1.3350-70 zones as the currency has ability to bounce back. Range for the week 1.3320 – 1.3710.

GBP @ 1.6135 = Cable should continue its upward journey and would find buying interest on dips around 1.60. Break of 1.5950-70 is required for more losses, which is not a favored move, as possible upside break of 1.6195 would challenge 1.6240 for a test of 1.6290-00. Range for week 1.5920-1.6350.

JPY @ 98.22 = Speculative net short position have increased sharply to a record levels probably in a hope that Japanese PM will announce economic stimulus package on Oct 01 that will include corporate tax cut, VAT etc. Bottom line is more liquid YEN market. This may sound good to ears, but I will not be surprised to see sharp JPY recovery, as buyer of Japanese currency could flock in to find Yen attractive.

Yen could initially hold around 97.40-50 levels. Break of 99.80-90 is required for a move towards 101.05. I see risk that failure to move beyond 100 would challenge for test of new lows and will not be surprised to see new lows. Range for the week 96.20 – 101.50.

AUD @ 93.12 = Aussie buying on dip is possible. Chinese data on Monday could drive the currency. Support 0.9420-50 should hold or else 0.9170. However, I am looking for another test and break of 0.9410 for 0.9450 or 0.9510-20. Range for the week 0.9210– 0.9580.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

Friday, September 27

Asad Rizvi

The uneasiness in the financial market is clearly becoming visible following the announcement by the US Treasury Secretary that US will reach its allowed debt limit on Oct 17, after that US government will be disallowed to honour payments unless US President uses his authority under 14th amendment. 

Meanwhile, after listening to FED officials speeches, there is clear divide divide over the issue on US Central Bank's bond purchase policy. Basically they look/sound nervous because some of them are probably fearing ciaos after the announcement, as it is also likely to have adverse impact economy. But many of them have real concern that FED cannot continue with its ongoing bond buy purchase for decades , as the time is running fast and has to apply brakes somewhere, as delay also means more damage and more problem at the time of unwinding. I would call delay a death wish by all the financial big wigs. 

Though FED has given a clear message that taper is connected to economic data, the market did not react to the news of fall in US jobless claims that support FEDs unwinding plan. Instead US Dollar made minor gains due to cautious approach by the investors/market players.

Following developments in Europe, specially with political uncertainty in Italy and despite Merkel's victory she has compromise with her party's agenda to form a collation government. Tension on US fiscal issue is growing, as US debt limit will soon exhaust and with unclear messages from FED officials on its tapering plan, trading volumes have certainly have thinned down narrowing ranges due to piling up of of bigger issues. In thin market condition there is always risk of volatility and and one negative/positive news could swing the market either way. However, today's release of European and US economic data will surly have a role to play and should help in determining the market trend.

GMT 3:13 - EURO @ 1.3484 = Euro is now much close to bearish zone. Unless it surpass 1.3525 comfortably to break 1.3580, there is bigger risk for a fall. Break 1.3410-20 will be 1st sign of exhaustion of European currency for another big fall. Euro should find strong support around 1.3440-50 zones.

GMT 3:26 - GOLD @ $ 1324.50 = We could be heading for another choppy day. Today gold can potentially surge in two-sessions, one in Asia and the other in US session. As long as support $ 13171-19 holds break of $ 1327 will encourage for move towards $ 1330-32 that may extend up to or beyond $ 1340. However, dip towards $ 1312 or below could be possible, but I am expecting a bounce back if the fall occurs. $ 1303-5 should not surrender.

GMT 3:31 -  GBP @ 1.6043 = Cable is still enjoying firmer tone, but needs to push beyond 1.6095-00 for a test of 1.6120-40 and has support around 1.5980-90. Risk for drop will increase if 1.5940 surrenders. 

GMT 3:35 - JPY @ 98.80 = Japanese currency has resistance around 98.40-50. It may not surrender, but needs to move beyond 99.10-15 for a test of 99.40-50 zones or else 98.10. 

GMT 3:48 - AUD @ 0.9344 = I am expecting Aussie to trade in ranges between 0.9310-0.9390. Only break will see another 30 pip move, both ways.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

Thursday, September 26

Asad Rizvi

From tapering market focus is gradually shifting towards US debt ceiling after Jack Lew announcing October 17, as a possible date that could hit the debt ceiling limit. This is likely to keep traders on its toes, as stock market is nervous. The news could bring more pain for the emerging market, as fiscal drag would probably lead to tighter condition to obtain US Dollar that will make funding cost more expensive. 

Similarly in Europe, German economic gains may not be enough to bolster regions economy, which is why Draghi couple of days ago hinted of considering another LTRO. The measures taken by ECB is not helping enough to push growth higher so that remaining economies of Euro-zone is able to improve job market conditions. One of the ECB official has already showed his concern about Euro's strength. German economy may be doing OK, but strong European currency will do no good to the remaining European economies, as it makes European goods less competitive. 

Meanwhile, Japanese news agency KYODO flashed "headlines news" hinting that Japan could go for much needed and ABE's promised Corporate Tax cut on October 01 that saw Yen taking a short plunge. But JPY could struggle around 100-101 levels until the final announcement, unless US 10-year bond yield moves up, if yield it moves towards 2.50 pct, Yen may find support. 

GMT 3:39 - GOLD @ $ 1330.50 = Gold will be choppy and has support around $ 1320-22. I am expecting god to hold above $ 1324 in Asia. a move towards $ 1338-40 is possible, only break could see a move towards $ 345-48 Or else $ 1310-12. 

GMT  3:45 - EURO @ 1.3521 = Likely o find top around 1.3550 zones, but should hold 1.3480-90 or else 1.3450. Any up move should exhaust around 1.3590-95.

GMT  3:55 - JPY @ 98.88 = Japanese currency could witness choppy trading, but bias is for weak Yen, 98.30-40 should hold. Break of 99.20 would see a move towards 99.40-50 or else 97.80.

GMT  4:00 - GBP @ 1.6077 = Bias is on the upside until London opening should hold around 1.6040-50 levels for a move and break of 1.6095-00 for 1.6120-30 levels. break of 1.6010 risk for 1.5980.  

GMT  4:03 - AUD @ 0.9368 = Aussie has support around 0.9320-30 levels, but may find strong resistance around 0.9390-00. If support break should see a dip towards 0.927080, before another sharp up move. 

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

Wednesday, Sept 25

Asad Rizvi

FED  officials are busy  making  statements  according to  their understanding about US  economy, but so far the speeches have  not been  powerful enough to  influence the  market because ultimately  it is the  final vote  on  decision making that matters. The mood is mix, as market is trying to gather the trend after mixture  of good and poor economic  data, as the  confidence level of US Consumer in  September was  disappointing. Release  of  of S&P Case  Shiller suggest  that  housing  demand could  not attain  satisfactory level, but was supported by strong rise in housing prices.

Similarly Europe too is gradually slowing down. Recent release of German economic data does not bode well, as signs are becoming evident that the pace of growth is slowing down, this is what yesterday's release of German IFO data is depicting. Draghi a day earlier has already shown his reservations about growth prospect in the Euro region signaling that ECB is prepared to take more monetary measures to increase the pace of growth.

Meanwhile, FED in its recent policy stance emphasised on economic data, which means today's release of Durable Goods Data though notorious and New Home Sales will provide direction about the latest trend of US Economy. But prior to that Germany's Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey an indicator that measure's the confidence level about the economic activity will be keenly watched.

GMT 3:15 - GOLD @ $ 1324.50 = Likely to hold around $ 13171-19 ion Asia & early Europe for a move towards $ 1328-30. break will encourage move extending towards $ 1333 or else $ 1310.

GMT 3:21 -EURO @ 1.3472 = Euro may struggle to make gains beyond 1.3480-90 zones for a a dip break of 1.3450 will open gates for a test of 1.3430-35 levels, 1.3410 should hold or else on the up 1.3515.

GMT 3:24 - GBP @ 1.5985 = As long as Cable holds below 1.6025 dip to test 1.5955-60 zones possible, break will threaten to test 1.5930 or else test of 1.6050-60 zones.

GMT 3:27 - JPY @ 98.66 = Yen will make further gains if holds below 99 for 98.30, break risk for test of 98.10-15 levels or else 99.20

GMT 3:31 - AUD @ 0.9377 = surely loosing upside momentum may hold around or below 0.9420 for a dip to test 0.9340-50, if breaks, possibly 0.9310-20 or else 0.9440-50 before down again.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

Tuesday, September 24

Asad Rizvi

The pace of US economic growth and jobs data is once again in limelight, as FED speakers have taken up podium to express their point of view, some in favour and some against. No one (Fed Speakers) is taking about flow of money that where is the monthly USD 85 billion printed money in the name of quantitative easing (QE) is being diverted. If the purpose of QE money is to stimulate economy then why some of the economist/research work argue that over 80 pct of the funds is sitting idle as excess reserve with private banks. 

Since August 2006 banks excess reserve surged by over USD 1 trillion to nearly $ 1.9 trillion suggesting that the money is not properly allocated to the corporate sector for new loans or to encourage consumer business. Of the remaining nearly 20 pct of the money, only tiny part is allocated for lending to businesses and major part goes to maintain reserves. Someone should question FED speakers/members that is this intentional and part of FED policy, because when it pays better return on funds deposited by banks, then why would bank increase customer exposure on a clogged balance sheet, unless such an environment is created that the banks are forced to participate aggressively and increase credit volume. One way of doing this is by reducing the return to banks that borrows QE money from FED.

Meanwhile, despite Merkel's win, release of economic data showing growth in Euro-zone region in September and positive Chinese PMI, market has reservations and is cautious about the next move, which is caused by last week's FED policy decision, financial market probably wants more clarity. 

One major factor that may have caught market by surprise is Draghi's concern about rising short term interest rates. He is neither happy with the pace of growth probably aware that though the trend is up but is not sustainable in near to long term. He even warned of using his monetary tool, another LTRO if necessary to bring down short-term interest rates to the desired level. Europe is also faced with similar problem low credit volume hindering real growth. 

GMT 3:26 - EURO @ 1.3493 = Since we are stilling below 1.35 levels, minor risk is for a test of 1.3470-75 zones, should hold or if surrenders  1.3440 is the key levels to watch below 1.3410-20 could be threatening. However, I still see a possible test of 1.3525-30 zones. Break will encourage for a test of 1.3550-60 levels. 

GMT 3:38 - GOLD @ $ 1326 = Small up move in Asia is possible and could test $ 1330-33  levels before exhausting or else break would risk for test of $ 1338-40, which is not a favoured move. Fall below $ 1320 will encourage for test of $ 1310-15 zones.

GMT 3:49 - GBP @ 1.6030 = Failure to break 1.6050-60 levels risk for a drop to test 1.5980-90 zones possibly 1.5950 or else Cable will test 1.6090.

GMT 3:55 - JPY 98.77 = Japanese currency could make gains as long as 99.20 holds for a move towards 98.30-35. Break of 98.05 risks for test of 97.70-80.

GMT 3:59 - AUD @ 0.9413 = Aussie should hold above 0.9370-80 for another upside test, but needs to break 0.9445 for test of 0.9465-70 or else 0.9350.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

Monday, Sept 23-27

Asad Rizvi

FED’s decision, not to taper was a big surprise as it was against many odds. But the delay is understandable because of quite a few factors. According to Ben Bernanke the level of growth was not meeting expectation as FED wants to see more progress in the economy linking it to the economic data before adjusting its pace of purchase, which could be one factor.  

FED is aware that it cannot continue injecting liquidity forever and has to apply brakes at some point. The size of money printing has reached to such an extent that further delay to reduce or stop purchase of bond would lead to bigger problems in future, as unwinding size will also increase.

I believe that there is combination of other important factors that has caused delay, such as excessive rise of US bond yield, creeping up of mortgage rates, uneasiness in the stock market and nervousness in the emerging market. But more importantly end of agreement on US debt ceiling that expires around mid-October should be the major cause of concern because this time Obama holds a weaker position after he was unable to obtain vote of confidence to strike Syria and Congressional threat to shut down the government is surly looming over the issue. FED may have sensed that the timing of tapering may not be appropriate as the Congress could clash debating debt ceiling issue that increases the risk to destabilize the financial market.

Meanwhile, next three-four months is important, as the current Fed Chairman will be retiring in January 2014. There is lot of talk about possible Bernanke’s replacement with many even guessing that Dovish in her approach, Janet Yellen is a strong candidate and could get a nod within couple of weeks after Larry Summers decision to step down.

It is interesting to note that lots of investors/traders are betting on Yellen’s appointment that since she is a “Dove”, she may not go for tapering. Yellen is a professional, she knows the importance and the nature of job, she is aware of Fed’s conventional policy stance for years and hence, if assigned with Fed’s job, she will not hesitate to choose the best between two-evil.

Furthermore, market should not be too complacent with the FED’s latest policy stance, as James Bullard one of the FED Voting member in one of his last week’s Tv interview has said that Tapering was a “Close Decision”, which was held up due to recent release of poor economic data. He even hinted that if the economy shows improvement then FED could start to reduce its bond purchases with small amounts, as early as October, as next FOMC meeting is due on October 29-30. Fed decision could be linked with the settlement of US debt ceiling that expires earlier then FEDs next policy meeting.

Next important event of the month is German election. Merkel is likely to win for third time because of her strong domestic economic policies and SPD’s support will helps in forming collation government. It is due to combination of her aggressive stance in domestic politics and in the Euro region that Europe was able to avoid economic collapse, especially when Greece was about to take lead in European collapse.

From Merkel’s CDU perspective key to watch election numbers is obtaining 40% + as pre-poll voting suggest that CDU is currently ranging around 38-40% and 6% + votes for its partner Free Democrats, which is ranging between 5-6% in pre-polls voting. Formation of strong collation with SPD the main opposition party expected to get nearly 26 % support will also suit the current environment. Any number below or SPD taking a lead or is able to form a government may give a shiver to Europe. But what can be more threatening and complicate the overall scenario is if the Anti-Euro party is able to attain 5 pct vote that would enable them to get seat in the lower house of Parliament known as Bundestag. The whole issue should be known in next 10-20 days after the elections.

While, this week market will start focusing from China that will release HSBC manufacturing purchase index that will tell about the health of Chinese manufacturing sector, as fate of Australian economy and currency largely depends on Chinese growth, which is expected to do well. Release of European economic data will be in limelight. IFO German business sentiment data and release of PMI from Europe will provide guideline about the ongoing economic recovery. A combination of Merkel win and economic recovery could push European currency higher in short-term before easing unless there is a surprise.

   

GOLD @ $ 1325.20 = As we are approaching expiry of US debt ceiling date, this time I could sense more tough times ahead for the Obama government. Since the borrowing is likely to exceed, which be the flashpoint because Republicans demand cut in spending, but Obama is unwilling to negotiate on debt limit. Circumstances suggest that the issue is likely to linger on and we could witness excessive volatility in Gold and US Dollar.

Gold that received pounding during weekend could lose another $ 40-50 but, before making a comeback by next week. Technically, we could be heading for choppy trading session. On the down side break of support $ 1295-00 is require for a test of $ 1275 before the up move occurs $ 1250 should hold. On the Up a move beyond $ 1345050 is required to challenge $ 1380.

EURO @ 1.3521 = Well, after Fed policy announcement Euro did break the upside target to gain nearly 200 points. Euro’s upside journey may continue until next month unless there is more clarity on US debt issue. But German election result should be watched carefully, as surprise election result or even a close contest could initially go against all odds.

Bias this week should be up, should hold around 1.3430-40 zones or else 1.3350 for a move and break of 1.3580-90 for test of 1.3625-50

Range for the week 1.3320 – 1.3715.

GBP @ 1.6003 = Trend remains on the upside. Support is at 1.5910, but major support is at 1.5825. Break of 1.6150 will encourage for test of 1.6220-50 zones. Range for week 1.5820-1.6250.

JPY @ 99.27 = Japanese currency may not have enough legs to surpass 97.90-00 zones or else could surge towards 96.70-90 zones. However on break on 99.90 it requires to move beyond 100.50 for test of 101.20-50 levels. Range for the week 97.90 – 101.50.

AUD @ 0.9390 = If Aussie can hold 0.9290-20 levels, AUD will make a feeble upside attempt towards 0.95 zones on break of 0.9450 before exhausting for another dip.  However, break of both the support and resistance level will encourage for a move towards 0.9210 or 0.9580. Range for the week 0.9210– 0.9580.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

Friday, September 20

Asad Rizvi

I hope this is not politics and more to do with the economy that Ben Bernanke's decision to delay taper is for economic gains rather than anything else. Warren Buffett is out in the streets supporting Ben and so will large financial institutions/hedge funds and others to soon follow in support of Bernanke. The so called Guru's have started to praise Ben's delay tactics. Basically easily monetary policy, tapering delay and liquidity injection helps all the borrowers enjoyed/enjoying free available money for years. 

In true sense, nearly USD 2.75 Trillion liquidity injected through printing of money does not filter down into the economy, as the cheap money made available by FED mostly helps to fill the odd gaps such as mis-matches, improves non performing loans position, which shows healthier balance sheet without an effort. Complete withdrawal of funding would surely lead to global financial collapse, but constant liquidity injection for years without increase in revenue is neither healthy that ultimately leads to higher debt. Continued US Central Bank's asset purchase policy is not cure for the economy, as it has its own pros and cons and delay will lead to to more future chaotic situation and therefore, the sooner tapering takes place, it is better for the economy, which would be step in the right direction. Hopefully, the decision by FED to refrain from September tapering is temporary. 

Meanwhile, yesterday's release of US economic data was overall satisfactory and as we have approached weekend, market is still trying to digest the tapering delay decision by Fed and in the absence of any major economic data today and Germany's election due this weekend, traders may prefer stay quite and choose with their trades. 

GMT 3:19 - GOLD @ $ 1365= Gold should hold around $ 1370 and any rise beyond does not look threatening for a test of $ 1352-55 zones, But needs to fall below $ 1350 for $ 1335. On the up it needs to clear $ 1378 for % 1385.

GMT 3:25 - EURO @ 1.3537 = Euro may find top around 1.3560 -70 levels for a gradual move towards 1.3480-90 on break of 1.3502. Support 1.3430-40 should hold or else 1.3590-95 before down again.

GMT 3:28 - GBP @ 1.6042 = Cable should find resistance around 1.6060-70 for a move down to test 1.60's for a possible test of 1.5980-90 zones or else 1.690-95 before down again. 

GMT 3:32 - JPY @ 99.30 = JPY should briefly hold around 99.00-10 levels or could test 98.70-80 before easing. However, only break of 99.60 would challenge 99.85-90 levels. 

GMT 3:35 - AUD 0.9454 = has strong support around 0.9380 that should hold for another attempt towards 0.9480-90 levels, but move beyond 0.9510 looks tough to crack.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

Thursday, Sept 19

Asad Rizvi

The taper did not happen for a very simple reason, as according to Ben Bernanke the FED did not see the kind of growth many Guru's and Pundits have seen and hence, they have decided to wait for more progress in the economy tying it to the economic data before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Market is mentally prepared that tapering will happen, it is again the question of when? And by tying tapering with economic data means that every release of US economic data will be of key relevance. 

I see this as simple case of extension, may be until December to allow US Bond market to stabilize, mortgage rates to settle down and another extension given to US debt ceiling that expires after 2nd week of October. Slashing of US growth for 2013 for third time also weakens the tapering case. This could be one big reason FED Chairman hinted that it might still scale back its purchases before end of the year. They all could be vital for FED. FOMC voting of 9-1 against tapering surely means voters wanted more time for reasons best known to them.  

Getting back to market, it always look for reason and excuses and during this period there is a strong possibility that the market may start concentrating on US debt ceiling for sometime, which expires around mid-October, fearing shutdown if there is disagreement, which should never happen. Market will also be looking for the release of economic data's that will remain on top of the agenda for future guidance. 

Another area of focus should be Germany, as election is due during the weekend. Merkel has strong position for a 3rd time win that should support Euro that should provide support the European currency in the absence of economic data release. Similarly Pound has been soaring and could make further inroads if today's release of retail sales does not disappoint. Poor number will provide another opportunity to buy on dips. 

Delay in tapering gave US Dollar good beating. Gold and currencies made big gains, but this must have given sigh of relief and some temporary breathing space to the emerging market central bankers/investors, as pressure should ease and their respective currencies should correct accordingly.

However, since the move in currencies and gold have been large after FED's surprise decision not to taper, market will take time to settle down and the moves could be erratic and big. Specially US market will be very choppy due to release of important economic data's. So care should be taken while trading and applying STOPS is highly recommended. 

GMT 3:14 - EURO @ 1.3524 = Strong support around 1.3440 may hold, but needs to break 1.3540-50 for a test of 1.3595-00 zones or else could see correction, break of support levels would only challenge 1.3390.

GMT 3:22 - GBP @ 1.6129 = Support is around 1.6070-80 zones that may hold for another upside try of 1.6150 in early Europe, but key level is 1.6180-00, which not be easy to surpass. Break would risk for test of 1.6220-30. However, break of support could risk for a test of 1.5990-00 zones.

GMT 3:28 - JPY @ 98.36 = Japanese currency did make sharp gains but failed to break 97.70 levels, which is a levels to watch. however, needs to move beyond 98.8090- zones or else another test of 97.50 or 98.25 could be a possibility. 

GMT 3:33 - AUD @ 0.9495 = I see strong resistance around 0.9550-80 zones and do not see break of this level. however break of 0.9440 will encourage for a test and break of 0.9410 for 0.9350. 

GMT 3:38 - GOLD @ $ 1359 = As long as support $ 1335 holds, there is room for more upside, break of $ 1372-75 is required for test of $ 1380-85 zones. fall below $ 13202-5 is required for resumption of down move. However, gold could witness choppy moves.  

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

Wednesday, Sept 18

Asad Rizvi

As the countdown begin, we are few hours away from FED announcement on taper. Though market seem to have digested that Federal Reserve will reduce its bond purchase amount, it is the size that should matter most. But, sooner or later tapering should give jitter to the market because of fear that liquidity will be sucked in from the banking system and even a modest USD 10 billion monthly reduction will have lasting impact. A one time USD 10-20 billion announcement may have lesser impact. Any delay would mean Fed still sees risk to the US economy.

Right now I would say FED is the winner, the only thing that they are required to do is to define and bring clarity between tapering and tightening and by providing comfort that interest rates will remain low for longer period of time. Since Federal Reserve had succeeded in preparing the market for trimming, so there is a minor chance that FED may avoid tapering this time, if they do so, then whenever they decide to taper in future, it is going to be the most difficult task for FED that may create extraordinary problem. More importantly the big question for the moment is that how would market behave after the Fed announcement is yet to be seen.

Meanwhile, market trading volumes have thinned down, which is understandable.  As there is plenty of talk about stocks an bonds, I think initial reaction of emerging market should be the key for market stability and direction that should not be ignored. Gold has already taken $ 135 trashing and could get more beating before the announcement. US 10-year Bond could face more nervous moment. USD could not gain from tapering phobia as Euro, GBP, AUD, KIWI and LOONEY (CAD) are the clear winners.

However, in present condition when there is lot of guess work, it is hard to predict the market, but do keep a close watch on Cable, as Pound Sterling could benefit from stronger sentiment after the release of BOE minutes. 

GMT 3:13 - GOLD @ $ 1297.50 = We could see some nervous moment in gold with choppy moves. Gold may struggle to beyond # 1302-05 levels for another test and dip towards $ 1285-90. Today's major levels to watch is $1260 on the downside and  on the $ 1335 is the level to watch. 

GMT 3:21 - EURO @ 1.3350 = Range trading is expected between 1.3320-90 levels, any extension could move is either towards 1.3290 or 1.3425. Prior to Fed announcement , bias should be on the upside. On a broader scale levels to watch is 1.3240 and 1.3470.  

GMT 3:28 - GBP @ 1.5897 = Prior to release of minutes Cable may enjoy strength and should hold around 1.5860-70 levels. but any upside rally will find hard to surpass 1.5950-60, a clear break may push it towards 1.6030-50 zones. on the downside 1.530-40 is the level to watch.

GMT 3:37 - JPY 99.24 = JPY is hovering in 260 pip range since last 17-days and needs to move beyond 100.50 on break of 99.95-00 for test of 101.20-50 zones or risk for sharp gains for Japanese currency is possible if 97.70 breaks. During the day Yen is likely to remain within 98.80-99.80 band.  

GMT 3:40 - AUD @ 0.9343 = Aussie has support around 0.93 levels, only break risk for a test of 0.9260-70 zones, which looks difficult, as AUD could challenge 0.9375-85 to make another attempt towards 0.94 levels.

  

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

Tuesday, Sept 17

Asad Rizvi

It was an interesting start to the new week, as Larry Summers decided to withdraw himself from Fed Chairman's position for a possible replacement of Bernanke who is expected to step down on completion of his term in January gave hope that Dovish Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen stands better chance, as replacement and market reacted accordingly.

Basically the joyous moment was for the Doves looking/pleading FED not to scale down tomorrow. I am not sure that if this is a genuine wish, because if FED dose not announce tapering tomorrow it still has 3-more months to make a tapering call and how can we be sure that Bernanke is leaving, there could be a possibility that Larry Summers withdrew because Ben Bernanke may get an extension. But this how market gets confused and reacts.

Meanwhile, another big event after tomorrow is the German election that could still rattle the market. Though Merkel's CDU and SPD, two of the main German political parties could reach an understanding and Merkel is expected to be re-elected, but until agreement between two parties is fully reached, uncertainty will prevail in the European financial market, as Europe is too dependent on Merkel that suits Euro-zone's policy. It is said that inside lot of bickering takes place in German politics, as question of European bailout could once gain raise many eyebrows in Germany and this could be the real threat to European currency and regions financial market.

GMT 3:11 - GOLD @ $ 1314 = We could be heading for a choppy day, but strategy remains unchanged, pick top to sell. Break of of $1320 is required for a test of $ 1330-35 zones. However, may struggle to move beyond $ 1320-22 levels in Asia, which could push gold towards $ 1306-08 and break would encourage for a test of $ 1294-96 zones.

GMT 3:16 - EURO @ 1.3332 = may find a cap below 1.3370 and unless surpass 1,3395-00 levels, risk for a test and break of 1.3295-00 for a possible test of 1.3260.

GMT 3:20 - GBP @ 1.5893 = Bias remains on the upside 1.5860-70 should hold, but needs to break 1.5820-30 levels for more gains. however. 1.5830-40 should not surrender.

GMT 3:26 - JPY @ 99.27 = Japanese currency is likely to to remain weak as long as hold around 98.90 for a test of 99.75-85 zones before recovering for else 98.65

GMT 3:30 - AUD @ 0.9311 = The top is seen and Aussie should hold around 0.9535-50 levels for a test and break of 0.9280-90 zones for further fall. 0.94 remains key.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

Monday, Sept 16-21

Asad Rizvi

As we get closer to the important coming event of the week when Fed is due to meet on Sept 18 and is expected to give its verdict on tapering after the conclusion of FOMC meeting. Release of weak US Retail Sales and Consumer Sale data on Friday gave another blow to the scaling down sentiment following previous weeks drop in August payroll data. But decision will not be based on weekly economic report. The other positive factor that supports FED’s idea of tapering is that inflation is too low, which needs to slightly pick-up within the manageable level. Low inflation endorses FED Dovish view on interest rate, as it assured earlier to maintain low interest rate and will emphasize on forward guidance.

I would stick to my June view that bond purchase amount will be reduced and initial tapering amount should range between $ 10-20 billion that should help in providing quick stability and confidence to the market. Any delay could a temporary, as I still see tapering happening before Ben Bernanke’s term end in January 2014.

FED Reserve Chairman in his 1^st tapering hint in June has clearly said that it could begin to taper its purchase of bond later this year if the economy continues to improve as FED wants. He further added in his follow-up press conference that FED could end bond buying completely sometime in the middle of next year, if all goes well according to plan. If we assess the over overall economic condition, it has definitely improved.

Initial FED announcement in June was surely made after the final decision on tapering was taken by its members, which could be subject to delay, only if the US economy goes burst, which did not happen. Though FED did not give eventual timing of its tapering plan, but during this period FED gave enough time to the market to prepare and adjust accordingly. The yield up-move in bond market is obvious because the size is huge and similar unrest was seen in the emerging market that began losing its charm after June policy announcement, as it is too dependent on foreign borrowings. The estimated liquidity injection by FED is $ 2.75 Trillion.

There is lot of talk that tapering will cause US 10-year bond yield to surge sharply, which is already hovering around 3 pct and once made a brief test. In my view, whenever FED decides to taper market will have face volatile session after the announcement. But let’s not forget that during last three months huge amount of money from emerging markets and elsewhere was parked in Europe, which is still in a struggling mode. I think if FED decides to scale down its bond purchase plan that may give another 50-100 basis point surge in bond yields that could be too attractive for funds to shift towards US market. This in turn will create demand for US Dollar and more bashing of Gold could be seen. However, any delay in FED decision will allow market to correct.

GOLD @ $ 1325.05 = Saw another perfect hit of my weekly target $ 1335, as fall extended to test $ 1306. During this week, we could see some choppy trades prior to FOMC announcement. Top around $ 1360 should hold, as bias to remain on the downside. Therefore, preferred strategy is to pick top to sell, as see risk for a move down to test $ 1280. On a broader prospective the crucial level to watch is $ 1375-80 on the upside and $ 1210.   

EURO @ 1.3292 = Euro did break 1.3280 for a test of 1.330, as overall tone remains strong. However, this week’s crucial level is 1.3395-00, unless makes convincing upside break, risk for losses will increase. A fall below 1.3210 will open gates for 1.3150 or 1.3070. But upside break of resistance level encourage for a 150-200 basis point move. Range for the week 1.3050 – 1.3580.

GBP @ 1.5866 = Upside move was quite in last week’s projection, but the rally extended gains unexpectedly hitting 1.5882. Bias to remain on the upside, as with tone against cross currencies will remain firm. Break of 1.5925 is required to test 1.60 or else a move below 1.5740 will threaten to challenge 1.5650. Range for week 1.5620-1.6040.

JPY @ 99.35 = Nikkei and US 10-bond market are two indicators that should be watched closely. Sharp fall of Japanese stock will encourage heavy buying of Yen and surge in 10-year US bond would weaken JPY. On any JPY weakness, I would still keep a close watch on 100.70-90 levels, as Yen may find buyers dip below 98.70 will open gates for test and break of 98.10 for 97.10-40 zones.

Range for the week 97.10 – 101.50.

AUD 0.9241= Upside momentum has surely broken and now 0.9350-80 is the barrier. AUD needs to break 0.9150-70 zones to extend losses and is likely to trade in a given range. Range for the week 0.9080– 0.9410.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

Friday, September 13

Asad Rizvi

I was reading interesting note in press that one of the official has said that the sharp drop in US Jobless claims below 300.000 versus 330.000 (expected) in due to unprocessed claims from computer changes and Labor Day holiday, which could be one factor that failed to lift market sentiment. What ever may be the truth behind this story, but it surely negates the impact of last weeks mild drop in US payroll number. 

All eyes will be on FED's  next week  gathering to know its future bond buying plan, which should be the driving factor behind financial market. This is what bond market suggest. This is why global stock markets are struggling to make a comeback and this is what declining gold prices indicates and this is why emerging market is once again beginning to look nervous after some recovery seen recently.

Today's US Retail Sale and Reuter or Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index should not be ignored, which is expected to show better economic performance and any positive or even data, as per expectation will support the sentiment.  

Meanwhile, European economy has once again started to show signs of nervousness, as regions industrial growth was unable to maintain its growth pace that seen during last couple of months and this is why ECB in its last week's report was cautious avoiding any positive talk about its economy and was focusing to keep interest rates low for extended period of time.    

GMT 3:12 - GOLD @ $ 1328 = Gold fall could extend up to $ 1310, but risk for correction is a possibility if it is able to surpass $ 1336 levels for a test of $ 1345-48 zones before down again. Break of support levels could challenge $1286 next week, prior to FED meeting. Bias remains on the downside.

GMT 3:18 - EURO @ 1.3283 = Euro has top around 1.3305 and is likely to dip towards 1.3230-30 levels or 1.3205. Else 1.3340-45 before down again. 

GMT 3:25 - GBP @ 1.5793 = Tone of Cable to remain firm with firm base around 1.5760-70 zones. On the up move strong resistance is at 1.5830, but the real challenge is to break 1.5870, which is tough to crack. Fall below 1.5740 risks for more losses. 

GMT 3:30 - JPY 99.65 = Japanese currency has strong support around 99.90-95. Failing to surpass risk for another test of 99.30, break will encourage for test and break of 99.10-15 zones or else 100.25.

GMT 3:32 - AUD @ 0.9245 = Aussie should struggle to get closer to 0.9290, which looks difficult for test of 0.9210 or possible test of 0.9180-90.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

Thursday, Sept 12

Asad Rizvi


It has been another quite session in terms of any major economic data release, as market has been trying to determine the next coming move. But in the foreign exchange market the day has been dominated by Pound Sterling and commodity currencies, as during the week US Dollar's upside rally gradually faded will the cooling down of Syrian tension.

Recently we have witnessed consistent economic progress in UK, yesterdays drop in unemployment rate combined with few claims by the jobless in Britain confirmed economic gains, suggesting that if the trend continues then Bank of England may have to re-consider rate hike earlier that negates Dovish BOE Governor Carney's forward guidance plan, as he is targeting unemployment rate of below 7 pct to hike rates. Pound Sterling has hit 7-month high on strong job numbers. Continuation of positive data could push British Pound to new highs, but the economy still has many challenges ahead. However, Pound is still a good buy on dips and GBP should remain attractive against Euro and Japanese Yen.

Today in Europe, ECB monthly report and Industrial production may give some kind of feeler about the progress in the region because overall recovery is yet not up to the mark. Growth in France, regions second largest economy is still pulling the strings. Any news negative from Italy that goes against  Berlusconi still poses a threat to the Italian government. 

In US session weekly jobless claims data cannot be ignored, which needs to be sharply low to to bring some life in the market, as economic data has not been the main driver of the market this week.

   

GMT 3:16 - JPY @ 99.53 = It is important for Yen to move beyond 99.80-90 levels or else risk is that break of 99.10-20 levels could see Yen gains extending towards 98.50 or else another test of 100.20.

GMT 3:23 - EURO @ 1.3321 = Top is around 1.3325-35 levels and Euro should not surpass1.3375. Break  of 1.3270-80 will encourage for a move towards 1.3220-40 zones.

GMT 3:331- AUD @ 0.9265 = I think we already seen the top of my weekly given range of around 0.9320. Now any Aussie up move should be opportunity to sell as AUD should cap below 0.9295 for a test and break of 0.9230 for a visit to 0.9205 zones. Beyond or around 0.9320 will again be a good selling levels, which should not be seen.

GMT 3:38 - GBP @ 1.5724 = The tone will remain strong but upside may not be easy to penetrate beyond 1.5875. However, 1.57760-70 should hold. either pick top to sell or pick bottom on dip. With stops 1.5910 and 1.5630 respectively. 

GMT 3:44 - GOLD @ $ 1359 = I do not see fall below $ 1349-50 levels until New York and hence, gold should make minor recovery to test $ 1363-65 levels. Only break would see gains extending towards $ 1368-70, which is less likely to happen. However, fall below $ 1345 will encourage for $ 1335.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

Wednesday, Sept 11

Asad Rizvi

Since USA decided to seek diplomatic solution, market is getting back to normal after easing of tension in Middle East. Stock market have rebounded, oil prices are gradually dipping despite reports of  crude supply falling. Gold has lost its gloss, as buyers fear FED Tapering could hammer the metal. If we take a closer look at the emerging market currencies, they have made small recovery, though the economies remains suspect id FED decides to gradually withdraw its bond purchase plan. So for now, we should get back to economics.

In the absence of any major data from Europe and USA, market seems to be enjoying strong Chinese data and this is why Aussie Dollar continues to make gains, as its economy is too dependent on Chinese economic performance.

Meanwhile, today market will focus towards UK jobs data. Fate of GBP that has been enjoying strength recently, due to better economic numbers will hang around release of labour report as Bank of England has recently pointed out in its policy announcement that it will co-relate its forward guidance with the unemployment report, which means that if the UK jobs data is disappointing then only Pound Sterling will receive thrashing or else Pound can potentially continue its climb on improved numbers, But any gains could be short lived for another fall because GBP is hovering around top of the range and strong Pound does not help UK economy. However, recent growth numbers suggest that prospect for Pound Sterling has surely improved.

GMT 2:53 -GOLD @ $ 1366 = Today tone could be mildy Bullish, as gold has firm support around $ 1353-55 and may hold around $ 1358 levels for a up move towards $ 1373. Break will encourage for $ 1377 or else $ 1340-45.

GMT 2:59 - EURO @ 1.3265 = Today again we could witness similar pattern, as Euro has support around 1.3230-40 levels and needs to push beyond 1.3290-00 for a test of 1.3325-30 levels or else 1.3205-10.

GMT 3:04 - GBP @ 1.5728 = Cable has strong support around 1.5690-00, but needs to clear 1.5760-70 levels for bigger move possibly towards 1.5850. However, fall below 1.5640 risks for more losses.

GMT 3:07 - JPY @ 100.40 = The move could extend towards 100.65-70, but needs to break 100.95 for more gains. 100.05 should hold or else 99.70-75.

GMT 3:10 - AUD @ 0.9294 = Aussie has support around 0.9240 and should hold, as it could move up from 0.9260-70, but requires clean break of 0.9330-40 levels for a test of 0.9370 or else 0.9210.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

Tuesday, Sept 10

Asad Rizvi

It seems that market has started to sense easing of Syrian tension, as Obama administration is planing to go on hold against military strike, This should ease USD gains, demand for gold should drop, halt surge in Oil prices and all safe heaven currencies and assets and should provide comfort to the world stock market. 

Market should get back to economics and tapering talk should once gain catch the headlines. If we take a close look at US 10-years bond yield, it is back to 2.93 pct that gives the feeler about what market really thinks about Fed next week's monetary policy meeting.

I think in current scenario gold is ripe for a fall as odds does not favour Yellow metal. US military attack on Syria was just a hope or else if we take close look why would one invest in gold when global liquidity is a big cause of concern for the emerging markets as has dried up, South African gold miners strike may be over. 

The only hope is seasonal demand from India during autumn, which is wedding season and Diwali, but India has already taken enough measures to make gold expensive. Gold in India is already too expensive as various taxes imposed made gold costlier by almost 10 pct and add another cost of nearly 20 pct due to Rupee losing its value against US Dollar that should see fall in demand for gold.

Therefore, I would prefer to pick the top and sell gold, as break of $ 1410-15 looks almost impossible until MPS and downward slope should see break $ 1350-55 levels for test of $ 1330-40  zones.

  

GMT 2:58 - GOLD @ $ 1384 = Should hold below $ 1386-88 levels for a drop towards $ 1378. break will encourage for a move towards $ 1372-75 zones. Or else $ 1393-95.

GMT 3:06 - EURO @ 1.3257 = Easing of Geo-political tension helped European currency to recover and currently has support around 1.3230-40, should hold for another test of 1.3285-95 zones. However, I would suggest caution around 1.33 zones unless 1.3335 breaks. Fall below 1.3210 is required for more Euro losses.

GMT 3:11 - GBP @ 1.5697 = Cable may have seen the top around 1.5735 or the level mentioned could be close to top. Now 1.5770-80 should not surrender for a move towards 1.5610-30 zones.

GMT 3:16 - JPY @ 99.54 = Risk is that failure to move beyond 99.80-90 levels will see Yen gains and break of 99.10 open doors for 98.70 or else 100.20-40 is the challenging levels.   

GMT 3:20- AUD @ 0.9264 = More Aussie gain is on cards and support at 0.9220-20 should hold for a test and possible break of 0.9295 for 0.9320. Or else 0.9202.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

Monday, Sept 9-13

Asad Rizvi

Last week, the biggest economic event  was the  release of US jobs data that showed  minor drop against expectation of 173.000 job gains, which fell by 4.000 and the unemployment rate falling to 7.3 pct caused by low  participation, which is lowest  since 1978. The bigger  cause of damage to the positive US growth sentiment was downward revision of June and July jobs by 74.000. This also means the economic erformance in 3^rd quarter was a bit disappointing despite improvement in jobs data.  

If we look at the monthly average jobs data for 2013, it is still hovering around 180.000, which is not a bad number. I think drop in jobs numbers could be blessing in disguise for Fed, as it gets closer to its initial target of 7 pct US unemployment rate. At a time when the Syrian uncertainty is looming over the head, softer jobs data provides space to start tapering with smaller number, say around $ 10-20 billion, though bigger number could be shocker.

In another important development during world leaders G-20 nation meeting at St. Petersburg in Russia, they felt the urgency to tackle global economic problems putting growth and job creation on top of their priority list with special focus on developing nations.

This is a clear shift of change in language/strategy to deceive and nothing else, as pervious theme was austerity/deficit/tax that did not bring the desired level of change in numbers. Capitalization of Banking Sector in Europe is an unresolved issue. The austerity theme has clearly backfired as rising unemployment does not support the idea of cut in spending. Deficit remains at a very high level because of the shortfall in revenues collection, as business did not grow.

Hence, G-20 nations opted to raise new slogan of “Growth and Jobs Creation”. Interestingly austerity, deficit, tax, growth and Jobs creation are all inter-connected with each other and no progress is possible if the economy lacks to perform in one single area. The major factor behind the entire success story in US & Europe is due to injection of free money to banks, financial institutions and hedge funds and extension of maturities by increasing the duration or else nothing has changed in real sense.

In fact the tapering talk by Fed has already given shiver to most of the emerging market forcing Indonesia to raise its rates. Brazil raised its interest tares twice by 50 basis points in July & August and Turkey was forced to raise its rates for 1^st time in almost 2-years to defend its currency. While India’s RBI took a big move by using its monetary tool on July 16 by increasing banks short term cost of borrowing through Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate and Bank Rate each by 200 basis points (2 Pct) to make Rupee less attractive, which is not working in favor of Indian Rupee.

This week market will once again start focusing on various Fed officials speeches and will be looking at the US economic data’s. Tapering in September would confirm that it was a pre-planned FED strategy to start its unwinding program and the economy had little to contribute towards the FED move unless it worsens. I think if we look at the 10-year US bond yield at 2.90 pct, which gives a better picture about the trend due to the size of bond market, it points towards tapering. Basically the question on tapering is when, not if, September or later. This time Fed language will be of key relevance about its forward guidance strategy and Chairman Bernanke’s press conference could add the spice. Later next month, Fed minutes will provide more clarity on the subject.

GOLD @ $1390.65 = It was another successful week, as my gold target of $ 1365 was met with ease. Though payroll fell this week, I do not see any reason for further gold gains unless Syrian unrest flares-up. Hence, any up move should be short-lived.

Identical strategy is recommended for next week. On the upside only break $ 1408 would risk for $ 1420. However, fall below $ 1375-80 will encourage for more losses, break of $ 1345-50 is required for a test of $ 1335.       

EURO @ 1.3177 = As per expectation Euro met with strong resistance and failed to surpass 1.3260 to hit the lows of 1.3105. Trading remained within a narrow band, as market is still trying to determine the trend.

Despite fall in US jobs, Euro could not make big gains and initially should remain under pressure. In the absence of any major data trading will be held on technicals. Euro may continue to struggle to move beyond 1.3260-80 and only break would encourage for a test of 1.3330 levels, which is not a preferred move. See risk for a break of 1.3080-90 levels for 1.3020-40 or possibly 1.2955. Range for the week 1.2950 – 1.3380.

GBP @ 1.5623 = Last week Cable succeeded in gaining upside momentum after penetrating 1.5570 levels to hit and surge beyond target 1.5640 to test topside of the range.

This week, initially, Cable should find buyers around 1.5550 levels for a move and test of a 1.5690-95 levels and needs to clear for 1.5740, which may not be possible on 1^st attempt. If breaks support levels could hit 1.5440. However, any move towards 1.5750 zones would be opportunity to short cable. Range for week 1.5520-1.5750.

JPY @ 99.08 = Last week, I did warn that there are many factors driving Japanese currency. It did touch the highs of the range and briefly test 100.25 levels before gaining sharply. 

In the absence of any news from Syria, Yen should gradually lose its strength or else any negative news of flare-up could see rush for JPY buying as a safe haven currency. The levels to watch is 98.20, as long as it does not break, there is possibility for another test of 100.30-50 zones. Failing to hold the resistance level of 98.20 on Syrian news would risk for 97.45 or 95.70
Range for the week 98.20 – 100.80.

AUD 0.9177 = Aussie up move was against my expectation. But this rally should not surpass 0.9270-80 levels for a down move or else will test 0.9320. I am expecting a gradual dip. AUD needs to break 0.9105 for a test of 0.9050 or 0.9010.  Range for the week 0.8980– 0.9320.

"URGENT"

Dear all,

Appologies for being absent tomorrow, which was important day.

Although I was back from meeting, half an hour after the release 
of Joba Data, it was my BLOG that was creating problem. I 
was neither able top make a post, nor was getting access to my
Blog. I am not sure if was facing same problem.

However, for next time please note that in such an emergency 
situation, I will be tweeting signals through Twitter and will try to
update on another website, which I use for advertisement purpose.

Therefore, you are requested to please join me on TWITTER @asadcmka

or I become active and inter-act with you on WEB-SITE http://asadcmka.wordpress.com/

You are requested to please join me on Twitter and Bookmark the web-site.

You should also e-mail me your query on trendteller@gmail.com and in worst 

case I can & Tweet you on your query. In this way though there could be minor 

delay, but we all will be in touch with each other with query and signals.

I would once again like to apologise for the inconvenience caused to you.

Regards
Asad Rizvi

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.