Tuesday, Sept 10

Asad Rizvi

It seems that market has started to sense easing of Syrian tension, as Obama administration is planing to go on hold against military strike, This should ease USD gains, demand for gold should drop, halt surge in Oil prices and all safe heaven currencies and assets and should provide comfort to the world stock market. 

Market should get back to economics and tapering talk should once gain catch the headlines. If we take a close look at US 10-years bond yield, it is back to 2.93 pct that gives the feeler about what market really thinks about Fed next week's monetary policy meeting.

I think in current scenario gold is ripe for a fall as odds does not favour Yellow metal. US military attack on Syria was just a hope or else if we take close look why would one invest in gold when global liquidity is a big cause of concern for the emerging markets as has dried up, South African gold miners strike may be over. 

The only hope is seasonal demand from India during autumn, which is wedding season and Diwali, but India has already taken enough measures to make gold expensive. Gold in India is already too expensive as various taxes imposed made gold costlier by almost 10 pct and add another cost of nearly 20 pct due to Rupee losing its value against US Dollar that should see fall in demand for gold.

Therefore, I would prefer to pick the top and sell gold, as break of $ 1410-15 looks almost impossible until MPS and downward slope should see break $ 1350-55 levels for test of $ 1330-40  zones.

  

GMT 2:58 - GOLD @ $ 1384 = Should hold below $ 1386-88 levels for a drop towards $ 1378. break will encourage for a move towards $ 1372-75 zones. Or else $ 1393-95.

GMT 3:06 - EURO @ 1.3257 = Easing of Geo-political tension helped European currency to recover and currently has support around 1.3230-40, should hold for another test of 1.3285-95 zones. However, I would suggest caution around 1.33 zones unless 1.3335 breaks. Fall below 1.3210 is required for more Euro losses.

GMT 3:11 - GBP @ 1.5697 = Cable may have seen the top around 1.5735 or the level mentioned could be close to top. Now 1.5770-80 should not surrender for a move towards 1.5610-30 zones.

GMT 3:16 - JPY @ 99.54 = Risk is that failure to move beyond 99.80-90 levels will see Yen gains and break of 99.10 open doors for 98.70 or else 100.20-40 is the challenging levels.   

GMT 3:20- AUD @ 0.9264 = More Aussie gain is on cards and support at 0.9220-20 should hold for a test and possible break of 0.9295 for 0.9320. Or else 0.9202.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.