Friday, September 13

Asad Rizvi

I was reading interesting note in press that one of the official has said that the sharp drop in US Jobless claims below 300.000 versus 330.000 (expected) in due to unprocessed claims from computer changes and Labor Day holiday, which could be one factor that failed to lift market sentiment. What ever may be the truth behind this story, but it surely negates the impact of last weeks mild drop in US payroll number. 

All eyes will be on FED's  next week  gathering to know its future bond buying plan, which should be the driving factor behind financial market. This is what bond market suggest. This is why global stock markets are struggling to make a comeback and this is what declining gold prices indicates and this is why emerging market is once again beginning to look nervous after some recovery seen recently.

Today's US Retail Sale and Reuter or Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index should not be ignored, which is expected to show better economic performance and any positive or even data, as per expectation will support the sentiment.  

Meanwhile, European economy has once again started to show signs of nervousness, as regions industrial growth was unable to maintain its growth pace that seen during last couple of months and this is why ECB in its last week's report was cautious avoiding any positive talk about its economy and was focusing to keep interest rates low for extended period of time.    

GMT 3:12 - GOLD @ $ 1328 = Gold fall could extend up to $ 1310, but risk for correction is a possibility if it is able to surpass $ 1336 levels for a test of $ 1345-48 zones before down again. Break of support levels could challenge $1286 next week, prior to FED meeting. Bias remains on the downside.

GMT 3:18 - EURO @ 1.3283 = Euro has top around 1.3305 and is likely to dip towards 1.3230-30 levels or 1.3205. Else 1.3340-45 before down again. 

GMT 3:25 - GBP @ 1.5793 = Tone of Cable to remain firm with firm base around 1.5760-70 zones. On the up move strong resistance is at 1.5830, but the real challenge is to break 1.5870, which is tough to crack. Fall below 1.5740 risks for more losses. 

GMT 3:30 - JPY 99.65 = Japanese currency has strong support around 99.90-95. Failing to surpass risk for another test of 99.30, break will encourage for test and break of 99.10-15 zones or else 100.25.

GMT 3:32 - AUD @ 0.9245 = Aussie should struggle to get closer to 0.9290, which looks difficult for test of 0.9210 or possible test of 0.9180-90.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.