Thursday, February 20

Asad Rizvi

Weak US data now looks acceptable, as market did not react sharply to poor housing data, probably realizing that bad weather is a temporary blow. US economy is still on the up move and unless there are signs of imminent slowdown there is less to worry about.

Furthermore, release of FED minutes clearly hints that majority of its members are comfortable with the pace of growth and does want to go on back foot by reversing its tapering plan and may even consider to amend its forward guidance strategy. I think if FED does not alter its plan to slash USD 10 billion after its March gathering, it will provide better direction and clear intention about FED strategy that taper will continue that should end by the year ending 2014.

Meanwhile, today's German data PMI is an important indicator due to the released that will give some direction about Euro's next move, which could be disappointing due recent release of weak German data. Market will also be watching release of batch of US economic data, as jobless claims will be key indicator of the day.

GMT 3:21 - GOLD @ $ 1311 = Gold needs to push beyond $ 1315 for $ 1318, which looks tough in Asia as it could move down to $ 1307 or $ 1304. Failure to break $ 1297-00 on the downside would gain risk for another up move. 
GMT 3:27 - EURO @ 1.3755 = There is a minor risk that as long as 1.3710-20 levels hold we could a a push above 1.3765-70 for possible test of 1.3780-90 zones before exhausting for down move. Break of support levels will encourage for test of 1.3680-90 levels.

GMT 3:31 -GBP @ 1.6674 = As long as 1.6610-20 holds buyer will hop in to pick the lows, but may find resistance around 1.6725-35 area that needs to clear for more gains or else another fall will be seen.

GMT 3:36 - JPY @ 102.04 = JPY will make further gains, as it is likely to hold around 102.30 levels. Break of 101.75 risks for 101.50 or else 102.50. 

GMT 3:39 - AUD @ 0.8946 = The expected fall has occurred that may extend, but caution is required, as Aussie may find support around 0.8910 where buying is preferred with Stop loss 0.8870 for a move towards 0.8970-80 zones.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.