Asad Rizvi
Draghi has a habit of making 360 degree policy shift at a very fast pace and once again he opted for same strategy sensing that market is buffoon, which again proved to be correct . He took the lead by comforting the market at his press conference that there is no threat of deflation in Europe that helped Euro to surge sharply.
This is certainly a very strange statement, as European unemployment rate is hovering around 12 pct, as Euro region is struggling for growth and cannot survive without injection on cheap money. Though economic slide may have halted, but it is still faced with numerous problems. Current stability is at a very heavy cost and poses huge risk if artificially injected liquidity is drained out of the system. Anyhow, this is how market behaves when it wants to ignore the reality.
Meanwhile, market is waiting for today's jobs data, which could again be dicey due to sever cold condition in USA. In my view, if Non-Payroll drop to 150.000-160.000, it may initially give shiver to the market, but Unemployment Rate anything better than 6.7 pct should balance it out next week. Similarly, better jobs data could give a jolt to the Doves, which I am not ruling out, as jobless claims fell by 20.000 and growth in private sector was clearly on the up. Do keep a close watch on the release of data, as I am expecting significant upward revision of December numbers.
Therefore, the conclusion is that mixed data could see choppy and volatile trading conditions and market may take time to settle. However, possibly strong number will lead to discussion of FED winding of its asset purchases at a faster pace and more misery for emerging markets.
GMT 3:29 - GOLD @ $ 1260 = Expecting gold to hold around $ 1254 and $ 1268 band prior to data and should be picked up on dip. However, on broader note on the downside a fall below $ 1235 will open gates for more losses. While on the up, break of $ 1275-80 zones is required for move to extend towards $ 1288-90 levels before exhausting.
GMT 3:36 - EURO @ 1.3591 = Prior Euro may hold around 1.3560-70 zones for a test of 1.3620-30 levels. Break of support levels is required for a test of 1.3520, but may find buyers on the up move above 1.3650 encourage for a test of 1.3690-00 zones.
GMT 3:39 - GBP @ 1.6323 = Cable is locked in range an may hold until it get a clear direction. break of 1.6260-70 support level is required for a test o 1.6205 levels and in the up move beyond 1.6350 will open doors for a test of 1.6375-90 zones.
GMT 3:43 - JPY @ 101.96 = Breakout of 101.50 and 102.50 is required for next direction.
GMT 3:46 - AUD @ 08942 = We have seen the top, as Aussie has almost hit the target 0.8990 and now looking good for a drop towards 0.8860-70 zones. should stay below 0.8998 or else test of 0.9020-40 cannot be ruled out.
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
GMT 3:29 - GOLD @ $ 1260 = Expecting gold to hold around $ 1254 and $ 1268 band prior to data and should be picked up on dip. However, on broader note on the downside a fall below $ 1235 will open gates for more losses. While on the up, break of $ 1275-80 zones is required for move to extend towards $ 1288-90 levels before exhausting.
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3591 = Prior Euro may hold around 1.3560-70 zones for a test of 1.3620-30 levels. Break of support levels is required for a test of 1.3520, but may find buyers, in the up move above 1.3650 encourage for a test of 1.3690-00 zones.
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6323 = Cable is locked in range an may hold until it get a clear direction. break of 1.6260-70 support level is required for a test o 1.6205 levels and in the up move beyond 1.6350 will open doors for a test of 1.6375-90 zones.
ReplyDeleteJPY @ 101.96 = Breakout of 101.50 and 102.50 is required for next direction.
ReplyDeleteAUD @ 08942 = We have seen the top, as Aussie has almost hit the target 0.8990 and now looking good for a drop towards 0.8860-70 zones. should stay below 0.8998 or else test of 0.9020-40 cannot be ruled out.
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3565 = Ok hope you went short around suggested level 1.3620
ReplyDeleteGerman court asked ECB about the legality of OMT that saw Euro taking dive
Book your profit around 1.3550...........
Sorry folks I have just noted the blunder that I have made, as I had computer error that was showing last nights high of 1.3620. I was away for my Friday prayers and did not refresh, which was the cause of confusion. Apologies.
ReplyDeleteAnyways I am still expecting 1.3520 to hold until NYK..........
sir what abt gbp after data??
ReplyDeleteNothing to add on GBP until band breaks...........
ReplyDeleteSell Gold
ReplyDeleteSell Usd
Buy gold around $ 1265. Apply Stops if 1258 Breaks.....
ReplyDeleteEuro to test 1.3550-70 zones......Should hold 1.3570-80
ReplyDeletesir sold gold ok n sl if needed
ReplyDeleteThat is your decision, I have suggested buying around $ 1265 and saw that level..............
ReplyDeletesorry i got message later soryy changing position before u gave seell gold sell usd my mistake
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3590 = Buy around 1.3580-90. Stops if 1.3550-60 breaks.....
ReplyDeletesir now i took postion in buy gold around 65 by mistake alsoi igot 3 doollor profit
ReplyDeletehope this proves to be nice and sensible.....good luck
ReplyDeleteHovering around critical $ 1257-58 levels. break risks for $ 1252. on the up a move beyond $ 1265 is needed for a test of $ 1275-80....zones.
ReplyDeletewhat about aus ?
ReplyDeleteNo change in Aussie view. If you have picked the top then relax but do apply Stop Loss if 0.9040 breaks...............
ReplyDeleteand sir what abt gbp!!
ReplyDeletei will tell you more once it breaks the upper band...............
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6391 = could test 1.6410-20 zones before easing again...........
ReplyDeletePlease do not respond to this post on BLOG. you can send e-mails.....
ReplyDeleteHi all,
I need to inform you that my last BLOG Update will appear on Feb 24, as I will discontinue my BLOG service from Tuesday, which means that I will not be available for Blog Service from Feb 26,2014 on-wards..
I must admit that it was a long and beneficial association with all my subscribers and I thoroughly enjoyed every moment that I have spent with you. I have to leave due to my family commitment and my office work that demands more attention. Health is another factor, as the job is too tedious that requires commitment, dedication and almost 24- hours attention to have better grasp of the market.
I wish you all and your families well and would like to apologies if you ever found discourteous or rude, but the intention was never bad or to hurt.
In the end I would request you all to trade within trading guidelines and do not violate trading norms, which will assist you to flourish in this trade, as I always say discipline is the key to success.
I thank you all once again for your kind support and bearing with me all the time.
With warm regards
Asad
Ok pals, got badly stuck in gold in a surprise down move.
ReplyDeleteSquaring of positions suggested. However, I am still looking for soft USD.
Cheers until Monday...............