Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Tuesday, December 03

Asad Rizvi


It was a pleasant day for the world economies, as release of economic data's reveled positive developments hinting growth across all over the globe. But it was continued positive sign from USA that led the market with US Dollar making gains against currencies and metals. US 10-years Treasury bond yield too surged by almost 5 basis point to a one-year high of 2.80 pct.
Prospects of growth also helped oil prices to make some recovery. This week is loaded with important US economic data's that should give more clarity about FED's bond purchase plan.
While, in my weekly note I pointed out that Cable could be top heavy around 1.6420-50 zones, GBP could not make further gains despite UK Manufacturing sector showing strong signs of growth, as PMI rose to 3-year high of 58.4 from 56.5. If today's release of UK data shows sign of weakness, Pound Sterling could make some more correction, as strong USD has also halted its upside momentum, but GBP will surely find buyers on 100 pip drop due to investors love for the British currency.
Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its Monetary Policy shortly and is unlikely to make changes, but it will be the language that would matter. Today it is anybody's guess after barrage of verbal bashing received against the currency to weaken the tone, I think the tone could be neutral that should help Aussie to make small upside correction. Strong language could send Aussie reeling down by another 100 pip before investors could step in to buy cheap AUD, as there is no scope for Hawkish talks in favour of strong AUD.
    
GMT 3:20 - GOLD @ $ 1221 = The fall is quite in line of my weekly forecast and is close to my target $ 1215-18. It has temporary support around $ 1212-15 levels, but may find stiff resistance around $ 1225-28 zones, only break will encourage for $ 1235, which is not a favoured move, as downside risk will increase on break of $ 1210 for test of $ 1202 zones.
GMT 3:08 - EURO @ 1.3532 = Euro may struggle to move beyond 1.3575 and is likely to dip and test 1.35 levels for a possible move towards 1.3475 zones Or else 1.36 
GMT 3:17 - GBP @ 1.6361 = There is a minor possibility that Cable could initially hold above 1.6325-35 levels for a test of 1.6375-85 zones, Only break would encourage for another test of 1.6420 area. However, break of 1.6305 levels risk for a test of 1.6270-80 zones.
GMT 3:23 - JPY @ 103.07 = I see strong support for Japanese currency around 103.35-40 zones and will not be surprised to see correction and move move towards 102.40-50 zones before further weakening of Yen or else 103.75.
GMT 3:27 - AUD @ .9083 = Watch 0.9040 if holds we could see test of 0.9150 or move extending towards 0.9180-20 zones. Downside break risks for 0.8970.

   


DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

35 comments:

  1. GOLD @ $ 1221 = The fall is quite in line of my weekly forecast ans is close to my target $ 1215-18. It has temporary support around $ 1212-15 levels, but may find stiff resistance around $ 1225-80 zones, only break will encourage for $ 1235, which is not a favoured move, as downside risk will increase on break of $ 1210 for test of $ 1202 zones.

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  2. EURO @ 1.3532 = Euro may struggle to move beyond 1.3575 and is likely to dip and test 1.35 levels for a possible move towards 1.3475 zones Or else 1.36

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  3. GBP @ 1.6361 = There is a minor possibility that Cable could initially hold above 1.6325-35 levels for a test of 1.6375-85 zones, Only break would encourage for another test of 1.6320 area. However, break of 1.6305 levels risk for a test of 1.6270-80 zones.

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  4. JPY @ 103.08 = I see strong support for Japanese currency around 103.35-40 zones and will not be surprised to see correction and move move towards 102.40-50 zones before further weakening of Yen )r esle 103.75

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  5. AUD @ .9083 = Watch 0.9040 if holds we could see test of 0.9150 or move extending towards 0.9180-20 zones. Downside break risks for 0.8970.

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  6. GOLD @ $ 1225 = Book your profit around $ 1225-27 & pick to sell around top Stops $ 1233.....Cheers

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  7. Hello Sir,

    Have we already seen the top on JPY?

    THank you

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  8. Probably yes, for the day...........

    I will soon be signaling level to book profit in JPY.

    Suggest all, placing Buying of JPY level as STOPs.....cheers

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  9. GBP @ 1.6388 = Sell around 1.6388-95. Stops 1.6430.............

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  10. EURO @ 1.3568 = Sell around 1.3568-75 levels. Stops 1.3615.........

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  11. GBP @ 1.6390 =I would prefer to stay square before data...................

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  12. sir what abt gbp after data!!

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  13. JPY @ 102.93 = Book your profit around 102.85-93..........Cheers

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  14. GBP @ 1.6408 = Despite good UK data, GBP is struggling since yesterday.

    This is a sign of exhaustion probably market has reaized that halt in housing funding also suggest slow down in economic activity. Market always look for reason to act. Cable could find tough to move beyond 1.6450 and if moves selling should occur.

    I will not be surprised to see GBP selloff soon................

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  15. AUD @ 0.9110 = Long in Aussie should consider profit taking around 0.9110-15, as see risk for fall...................

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  16. AUD @ 0.9122 = Sell around 0.9122-28. Stops 0.9160.........

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  17. GOLD @ $ 1220 = Book your profit around $ 1218-20............Cheers

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  18. JPY @ 102.58 = Preferred Selling area around 102.40-50. Stops 102.05...............

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  19. JPY @ 102.45 = Sell JPY around 102.40. Stops 102.05..................

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  20. I still see more losses as longas barrier $ 1225-27 is likley to hold.

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  21. Ok, now sell Yen around 102.35-40..................

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  22. Gold @ $ 1222.70 = wait to sell around $ 1225-27

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  23. AUD @ 0.9123 = Suggest closing AUD position around 0.9117-23.....

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  24. Euro @ 1.3575 = Close Euro Position...............

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  25. We have one position, Yen sale around 102.35-40 unless, will hold.....

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  26. GOLD @ $ 1221 = I did not get you ? are u long, if yes offlaod it..........

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  27. it looks sir gbp in pressure ?

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  28. no i m waiting for 25 n 27 to sell as u sugesset wait n sell around 25 27 n gold went down so i want to wait for the level or sell at cmp no position yet

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  29. I have already answered you at your earlier query.....

    t 9:41 AM
    GBP @ 1.6408 = Despite good UK data, GBP is struggling since yesterday.

    " This is a sign of exhaustion probably market has reaized that halt in housing funding also suggest slow down in economic activity. Market always look for reason to act. Cable could find tough to move beyond 1.6450 and if moves selling should occur.

    I will not be surprised to see GBP selloff soon................"

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  30. Yes, bassically my strategy to to play safe rather than trade for the sake of trading and get trapped. We are already 3+ in gold today...................

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  31. GOLD @ $ 1221 = If fails to move beyond $ 1225 could dip to test $ 1213-15 zones...........

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  32. Ok pals, we could see US Dollar making gains in NYK............

    If holding Gold & JPY apply SELL as STOPS..................

    It was another excellent day.............

    Cheers until tomorrow.................

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