Asad Rizvi
Today is the last trading day of the year and we could be heading for choppy day. JPY is holding below 105, 10-year US bond yield failed to surpass 3 pct levels. Whereas, major stocks are set to close at record high, though Asia has so far made a good beginning, but market remains unsure about the closing trend.
The real test for the financial market will come in new year, when FED will gradually start reducing its bond purchase amount by $ 10 billion on monthly basis. Initial tone for Euro and Pound Sterling looks strong and we could see more gains. Whereas, gold will continue to loose its sheen.
Trading activity on the last day of the year (Today) is expected to remain thin and volatile too, as momentum should start picking up from next week, when traders will be back from holidays. So watch out for possible exaggerated moves. However, US consumer confidence data, Chicago PMI & Case Shiller Home Price Index may set the tone for new year.
GMT 2:44 - GOLD @ $ 1198 = Gold trend certainly does not bode well for coming year and is surely going to take pounding, as it is too far away from safe level of $ 1225-30 close. I will not be surprised if gold makes an upside feeble attempt, but a close below or around $ 1170-75 today will certainly ring alarm bell for 2014.
During the day in all 3-sessions, support is around $ 1188-90 and break of $ 1205 is required to test $ 1210.
GMT 2:49 - EURO @ 1.3795 = Support 1.3760-70 should hold for a possible move towards 1.3840-50 zones before easing or else 1.3725.
GMT 2:54 - GBP @ 1.6482 = Strong support around 1.6450-60 may hold Pound, with minor support around 1.6435 for another test of 1.6495-00, if breaks could stretch by another 25-30 pips, but break below would risk for a test of 1.6410-20 zones.
GMT 2:57 - JPY @ 104.90 = gains could extend but needs to break 104.70-75 levels for 104.50 or else re-test of 105.20-25 zones could be a possibility.
GMT 3:00 - AUD @ 0.8922 = Correction is taking place against all odds that could stretch up to 0.8950-60 zones if 0.8935 breaks. However. break of support level of 0.8905 would risk for another test of 0.8875-80 zones.
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
GOLD @ $ 1198 = Gold trend certainly does not bode well for coming year and is surely going to take pounding, as it is too far away from safe level of $ 1225-30 close. I will not be surprised if gold makes an upside feeble attempt, but a close below or around $ 1170-75 today will certainly ring alarm bell for 2014.
ReplyDeleteDuring the day in all 3-sessions, support is around $ 1188-90 and break of $ 1205 is required to test $ 1210.
EURO @ 1.3795 = Support 1.3760-70 should hold for a possible move towards 1.3840-50 zones before easing or else 1.3725.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6482 = Strong support around 1.6450-60 may hold Pound, with minor support around 1.6435 for another test of 1.6495-00, if breaks could stretch by another 25-30 pips, but break below would risk for a test of 1.6410-20 zones.
JPY @ 104.90 = gains could extend but needs to break 104.70-75 levels for 104.50 or else re-test of 105.20-25 zones could be a possibility.
ReplyDeleteAUD @ 0.8922 = Correction is taking place against all odds that could stretch up to 0.8950-60 zones if 0.8935 breaks. However. break of support level of 0.8905 would risk for another test of 0.8875-80 zones.
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6522 = Book your profit around 1.6522-28....Cheers
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6530 = Selling not preferred as GBP could hit 1.6555-60.........
ReplyDeleteBasically, its the cross selling of Euro Vs GBP in thin market that has pushed GBP, which means GBP could correct. Its difficult to pick top around 1.6550--80......
ReplyDeleteshould euro buy ?
ReplyDeleteView remains unchanged., try to pick bottom, as see minor risk for a test of 1.374-45 zones.........
ReplyDeleteNothing much to add on gold at the moment. Though see $ 1198 to hold fr test of $ 1205...........
ReplyDeleteToday gold could be tricky.........
take chance to sell gold at these n what sl if u prefered to sell
ReplyDeletethen you did not buy when I said it may test $ 1205.
ReplyDeleteI have nothing to suggest, go though my weekly outlook I said buyers will try to push it upwards on the last days for better closing levels, though it did happen yesterday. Gold could test up and then down due to tug of war between Bulls & Bears, tends remains bearish........
If you wish you may take the risk............
at that time gold was at 1202.50 n 1203 so for 2 3 dollar i didnt buy thats why
ReplyDeleteNo problem, wait for clear direction.............
ReplyDeletesir gold next move
ReplyDeleteNothing new to add tom my morning post..............
ReplyDeletei still wait about euro signal ? i couldnt buy at 1.3760 ?
ReplyDeleteIt is not going to down, Euro is up............
ReplyDeleteBut do keep in mind active is thin, traders will leave early as tomorrow is holiday & market could still misbehave.........
normal activity will resume from next week...........
Ok pals, If you have followed my morning post then there was plenty of opportunity to enter in to profitable trades. I opted to stay out due to year end.
ReplyDeleteHope you guys had a great year.
Tomorrow is holiday. Next update on Thursday.
Wish and pray a very happy & prosperous 2014.
Cheers
manv, now will understand that why I was trying to protect you all from trading in gold................
ReplyDelete