Asad Rizvi
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
Though disappointing, but weak US jobs data announcement that was fewer by 32.000 against expectation of 180K did not cause havoc in the market, as net revision was in positive territory by 9K. Sentiment about US economy has been bearish for nearly 3-4 weeks. The data further confirmed that the US economy in Q3 was soft.
It is estimated that the partial shutdown could hit this quarter GDP by 0.5 pct, as White House Council of Economic Advisers estimates nearly 120.000 job losses due to shutdown. Drop in unemployment rate to 7.2 pct could be good news as it gets closer to FED's target of 6.5 pct, but the fact is that the drop is caused due to fewer application for jobs from job seekers that had dropped out from the labour force.
However, the risk is that Q4 too will be disappointing for US economy that will push over all sentiment bearish towards zone, as future US economic data will show distorted numbers. This has given further hope to the Doves for delay in tapering for possibly next six-months, though I am not too convinced/sure that how much would it cost, if FED decides to withdraw bond purchase worth USD 10-20 billion. I think any such decision would be more because of policy matter rather than anything else.
Today's important event will be BoE's minutes that will give feeler about the its assessment for UK economy. Recent data have shown strong domestic demand, although growth in the industrial sector has been at a slower pace. Emphasis will be on the need/focus of stimulus package, which may not deviate much from previous release of minutes because of recent UK economic slowdown.
GMT 3:04 - GOLD @ $ 1338.80 = Gold has support around $ 1334-35, if fails to hold could see drop extending towards $ 1330-32 zones.However, in Asia and early Europe, I am expecting a move towards $ 1345-50 that could stretch by another $ 3 before easing.
GMT 3:10 - EURO @ 1.3788 = Euro has strong support around 1.3750-60 zones and is likely to test and break 1.3815 for 1.3835 or else 1.3730-35.
GMT 3:17 - GBP @ 1.6251 = Prior to BOE minutes, Cable is likely to find resistance around 1.6270-80 and could drop on break of 1.6030 for support level1.6210-15, or else 1.6320-25. On the downside break of support levels could see a push further down to 1.6170-80.
GMT 3:23 - JPY @ 97.74 = Should hold around 97.40-50 levels or else gain for JPY could extend up to 97.20-25 levels. Yen may not extend its gain beyond 96.90, as it needs to push above 97.95-00 for 98.25.
GMT 3:27 - AUD @ 0.9736 = Aussie will enjoy its upward journey as a long as 0.9670 holds. I am expecting 0.9705 to hold, but need to clear 0.9780 for more gains or else will consolidate in given range.
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
GMT 8:04 - GOLD @ $ 1338.80 = Gold has support around $ 1334-35, if fails to hold could see drop extending towards $ 1330-32 zones.However, in Asia and early Europe, I am expecting a move towards $ 1345-50 that could stretch by another $ 3 before easing.
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3788 = Euro has strong support around 1.3750-60 zones and is likely to test and break 1.3815 for 1.3835 or else 1.3730-35.
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6251 = Prior to BOE minutes, Cable is likely to find resistance around 1.6270-80 and could drop on break of 1.6030 for support level1.6210-15, or else 1.6320-25. On the downside break of support levels could see a push further down to 1.6170-80.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteJPY @ 97.74 = Should hold around 97.40-50 levels or else gain for JPY could extend up to 97.20-25 levels. Yen may not extend its gain beyond 96.90, as it needs to push above 97.95-00 for 98.25.
AUD @ 0.9736 = Aussie will enjoy its upward journey as a long as 0.9670 holds. I am expecting 0.9705 to hold, but need to clear 0.9780 for more gains or else will consolidate in given range.
ReplyDeletehi sir
ReplyDeleteGbp and AUD both are declining. Keep the shorts or long now?
Thanks
moeen, you know my strategy, i always prefer taking profit, especially in my 1st trade so that I can avail next an all other opportunities during the day.....
ReplyDeleteaus 96.40 should buy ?
ReplyDeletesir should euro buy 1.3772?
ReplyDeletepd, do not force me to follow your wish list.
ReplyDeleteOthers will get confused.
When I do not reply it clealy means that my view in unchanged.
If you are comfortable go ahead with your plan................
I will update as when necessary..................
GBP @ 1.6175 = Book your profit and go long around 1.6160-70...Stops if 1.6120 breaks......................Cheers
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1336 = Do not prefer long gold at current levels, as failure to move beyond $ 1338 risks for a test of $ 1330-32 levels............
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6165 = Could test 1.6135-40 before bounce back..........
ReplyDeletesir buy gold aroud 31 n sl if yes
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $% 1330 = Book your profit and gold lons around $ 1327-29. Stops $ 1322.................
ReplyDeleteIts all over for USD. I am expecting US Dollar to weaken.
ReplyDeleteHold you currency and gold buyings........
Jpy tested 97.20. If went short Yen apply STOPs around 96.80-90
ReplyDeletesir what about gbp after mpc minutes?
ReplyDeleteNo change in view.........Buying around 1.6135-40 os still good Stops 1.6090.........
ReplyDeleteholding buy gold sir is it ok
ReplyDeleteyes....................
ReplyDeletenext in gold hold buy position
ReplyDeletebrought oil at 9634 sl at 9590
ReplyDeletebrought gold at 1332 SL 1322
brought Gbp at 1.6130 SL 1.6090
is that ok
Yes, OK.
ReplyDeleteI have no working on Oil..................
EURO @ 1.3792 = Book your profit around 1.3792-98..............Cheers
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1333 = "Watch out", this is not encouraging, as gold is struggling to surpass $ 1336-38 levels, failure risks for a test of $ 1324-26 levels.........b break would enourage for test of $ 1341-44 zones..........
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6172 - JPY @ 97.35 - Gold @ $ 1334
ReplyDeleteSuggest squaring all position....
Cheers until toorrow..........................