Tuesday, October 29

Asad Rizvi

It was quiet and cautions start to the week, as trading was seen in tight and narrow range ahead of FED policy announcement due tomorrow. Distorted data because of the delay in release of  economic numbers with most of the indicators pointing towards slowdown should not encourage FED to slash its bond buying target, which may be extended for a future date and hence, FED may opt for continuation of its extremely easy and friendly monetary policy.

Economic data released on Monday confirms slow growth pace of US economy as growth in manufacturing sector slowed though industrial production showed some improvement. Pending home sales was also disappointing. Housing and labour are two key major areas that FED often mention in its report.

Today's weak US retail sales report could further put dent to US Dollar as all indicators are hinting slow growth in 3rd quarter, but I still believe that any weakness of USD could be a mild one, as currencies and commodities have already risen sharply to new highs and potentially could correct sharply. While tapering could only be delayed for few months and cannot be forgotten for ever.

GMT 2:23 - GOLD @ $ 1360 = Sell Stops $ 1366 for $ 1348...........

GMT 2:27 - EURO @ 1.3780 = Euro could not show enough muscles and may struggle to move beyond 1.3840-50 levels. It is likely to exhaust around 1.38 levels, break of 1.3650-60 will pave way for possible test of 1.3710-20.

GMT 2:31  - GBP @ 1.6094 = Cable is bit tricky right now, as break of 1.6110 will encourage for 1.6130. However, unless move beyond 1.6170 GBP will be under pressure. Levels on the downside to watch is 1.6030-40 that should hold or else crucial levels of 1.5970-80 could be challenged.

GMT 2:35 - JPY 97.62 = There is nothing much to add as 7.90 remains an important level for the next move towards 98.30, which is not a likely move to occur, but gains could be limited as long as 97.10 holds or else 96.80. 

GMT 2:41  - AUD @ 0.9533 = Close to important support level of 0.9500-10, which should hold, but needs to surpass 0.9580 convincingly for some stability. Break of 0.9470-80 levels could could cause more damage to the Australian currency.

DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.