Asad Rizvi
As this is just the beginning of partial US government's shutdown financial market still believes that the i ssue will get resolved, but if the situation continues without any positive result the conditions may start to deteriorate because 15-days is a long period and market may not wait for the last day and could loose its patience earlier.
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
As this is just the beginning of partial US government's shutdown financial market still believes that the i ssue will get resolved, but if the situation continues without any positive result the conditions may start to deteriorate because 15-days is a long period and market may not wait for the last day and could loose its patience earlier.
Hope the issue does not get mixed up with financial politics and is treated on merit, because the US economy that has started to respond well to the FED measure could slip back if market gets the feeler that the negotiation lacks determination and the Republicans are in no mood to compromise.
Meanwhile, activity in the US manufacturing sector in September was healthy as per the ISM data. While, data released in Germany showed worsening employment condition, which is a sign of concern for the Euro-zone that heavily depends on German growth. Recent weak numbers affirms Draghi's concern that the European economy still needs mending and though no change in rates is expected, but ECB tone will surly be soft.
In UK too, PMI data slipped down by 0.6 to 56.7 unable to maintain its upward momentum. Today's PMI Construction should be another important economic indicator that would provide clue about the economy, since housing plays important role growth, market may take this data seriously.
Surprisingly, gold that usually is considered as a safe haven instead got clobbered because it did not find buyers or in fear that tapering is unavoidable and healthier US ISM data gave further blow to the metal. Today's release of ADP employment could be a big event because of uncertainty that if US payroll data will be released or not. But it is important to keep a track that any news of failure, decline or uncertain condition while negotiating could drive gold sharply upward.
GMT 3:17 - GOLD @ $ 1293 = Pick top to sell around $ 1295-98 levels. Risk if $ 1304-5 breaks for $ 1315. Expecting break of $ 1285-88 zones for test of $ 1270-75 zones. Keep in mind market will remain choppy.
GMT 3:24 - EURO @ 1.3522 = Top around 1.3550, as the European currency could struggle to make bigger gains. Strong barrier is around 1.3590-00. I am looking for a test and break of 1.3402 for 1.3485, break wool encourage for 1.3466.
GMT 3:31- GBP @ 1.6174 = Cable may initially find support and hold around 1.6140, but needs to crack 1.6195-00 for 1.6230-50, which could be tough. Or else break of 1.6115-20 risk for a test of 1.6070-80 zones.
GMT 3:33 - JPY @ 97.93 = Japanese Yen looks suspicious if holds 98.50. see risk for further gains needs to test and break 97.30 for test of 96.80-90 zones. Or else 98.95.
GMT 3:36 - AUD @ 0.9373 = If fails to move beyond 0.9390-00 for 0.9420, Aussie could soon exhaust for a dip to test and break 0.9330-35 for 0.9310.
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
GMT 3:17 - GOLD @ $ 1293 = Pick top to sell around $ 1295-98 levels. Risk if $ 1304-5 breaks for $ 1315. Expecting break of $ 1285-88 zones for test of $ 1270-75 zones. Keep in mind market will remain choppy.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3522 = Top around 1.3550, as the European currency could struggle to make bigger gains. Strong barrier is around 1.3590-00. I am looking for a test and break of 1.3402 for 1.3485, break wool encourage for 1.3466.
GBP @ 1.6174 = Cable may initially find support and hold around 1.6140, but needs to crack 1.6195-00 for 1.6230-50, which could be tough. Or else break of 1.6115-20 risk for a test of 1.6070-80 zones.
ReplyDeleteJPY @ 97.93 = Japanese Yen looks suspicious if holds 98.50. see risk for further gains needs to test and break 97.30 for test of 96.80-90 zones. Or else 98.95
ReplyDeleteAUD @ 0.9373 = If fails to move beyond 0.9390-00 for 0.9420, Aussie could soon exhaust for a dip to test and break 0.9330-35 for 0.9310.
ReplyDeleteJPY @ 97.38 = Book your profit around 97.33-38...........cheers
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6193 = As I said 1.62 will be tough. Now could see test of 1.6120-40 zones
ReplyDeleteBy the way 1.6240 should not break.....................
ReplyDeleteGold @ $1296 = Hope you have book profit earlier around $ 1287-88. Go shold around $ 1296-98. Stops $1304..........
ReplyDeletesir gbp looking strong .. any medium term view on it!! where u seeing it in coming months!!
ReplyDeleteYes, it gaining due to better economic numbers and US shutdown. Overall trend will remain strong, as Europe is faced witg political problems & softer ECB stance.
ReplyDeleteAs long as shutdown issue lingers on GBP will enjoy strength with occasional correction. But this does not mean that UK economy is back on track. Cracks will soon appear, hence top should be around 1.63-65 zones.........
non farm payrolls canclled news from fx is it true
ReplyDeleteTrue only when officially announced, which is not in my knowledge. I have hinted that in my weekly post about the possibilty of being posponed...............
ReplyDeletesir what about gold after data!!
ReplyDeleteWell moring levels are still good. But the risk id US Dollar may weaken abit due to weak ADB numbers
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1298 = Likley to hold $ 1295 & could test $ 1305-06..........
ReplyDeleteItalian government wins Italy senate confidence vote. this is good news for Euro...........
ReplyDeleteUS Dollar buying should be avoided...........
ReplyDeleteOik, the upmove has occured and is likey to cool down around 1.3595-00 & 1.6260-70
ReplyDeleteOk the point of short message earlier on 1st instance about Italian Election was to send quike message without wasiting time, which must have been beneficial..........
ReplyDeleteso in gold sell with sl 06 or ew unchangedwhat next vi
ReplyDeleteIt is difficult to give a accurate or close to accurate view on gold. I have given you the chart levels as breakout will matter.
ReplyDeleteEuro is now diffrently placed after the Italian vote of confidence.
If Euro shares the burden then GBP could ease becuase of cross correction. There is no one factors, there are so many factors that hs to be taken into account. Hnec, you havr to be prepared to change your strategy accordingly...................
GOLD @ $ 1303.30 = Do book your profit around $ 1304-06.........
ReplyDeleteOk pals, i have to take early leave.............
ReplyDeleteCheers until tomorrow...................