Asad Rizvi
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
In my weekly note I have pointed out that history suggest that US debt ceiling limit has always been raised. It can never be blocked for longer period of time or the global financial system will collapse. Because negotiators know that they do not have a choice and will have to sail on the same boat when its is their turn if they win next elections. Hence, It could be conditional, intentional or sensational, with some delay and with hue and cry. The is why they have to make rumbling noise to gain political mileage to avoid possible protest.
This time it could be different, because the risk is that if the deadline date passes, US will have to face default that will have sever negative impact on the global financial market that has been struggling against recession and slowdown for past several years. I think negotiators will avoid being blamed for causing catastrophe. Therefore, extension of US Debt Ceiling is almost a done deal, as default is not affordable. Its matter of time, as we still have 70-hours to hit the debt ceiling if not raised by Congress.
Though stock market has responded in a hope that negotiations now looks a good possibility after some of the developments in Washington, but as the issue remains unsettled and as it gets closer to the deadline time, market could react, which could soften the Stock market and the Greenback. But reaching of agreement on extension of US Debt Ceiling Limit will ease off the pressure on US Dollar and market will immediately start concentrating on economy.
GMT 3:26 - GOLD @ $ 1274 = The basic to understand is that if an agreement is reached on US Debt Limit Deal, gold will fall and if delayed or signs of trouble, then gold will surge sharply. I am expecting gold to hold around $ 1280-85 levels in Asia and may exhaust below $ 1280 for a test of $ 1257-63 zones on clean break of $ 1267.
GMT 3:33 - EURO @ 1.3562 = Initial support is at 1.3530, may hold for small gain, but 1.3598 is the crucial level to watch, only break would encourage for a test of 1.3640 or else, on the down side break of support levels risks for test of 1.3470-80 zones.
GMT 3:39 - GBP @ 1.5996 = As long as 1.5960-70 holds there is minor risk for a test of 1.6020-30 level, break is required for a move to extend towards 1.6060. However could exhaust for dip. But break of support level risks to challenge 1.5910.
GMT 3:45 - JPY @ 98.46 = JPY is likely to remain locked in 98.05-90 range, breakout could see see a 100 pip move either way.
GMT 3:48 - AUD @ 0.9433 = Aussie is in a Bullish mode and should not fall below 0.9370-80, as potentially the move could extend beyond 0.9475.
GMT 3:48 - AUD @ 0.9533 = Aussie is in a Bullish mode and should not fall below 0.9470-80, as potentially the move could extend beyond 0.9575.
GMT 3:25 - GOLD @ $ 1274 = The basic to understand is that if an agreement is reached on US Debt Limit Deal, gold will fall and if delayed or signs of trouble, then gold will surge sharply. I am expecting gold to hold around $ 1280-85 levels in Asia and may exhaust below $ 1280 for a test of $ 1257-63 zones on clean break of $ 1267.
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3562 - Initial support is at 1.3530, may hold for small gain, but 1.3598 is the crucial level to watch, only break would encourage for a test of 1.3640 or else, on the down side break of support levels risks for test of 1.3470-80 zones.
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.5996 = As long as 1.5960-70 holds there is minor risk for a test of 1.6020-30 level, break is required for a move to extend towards 1.6060. However could exhaust for dip. But break of support level risks to challenge 1.5910.
ReplyDeleteJPY @ 98.46 = JPY is likely to remain locked in 98.05-90 range, breakout could see see a 100 pip move either way.
ReplyDeleteAUD @ 0.9433 = Aussie is in a Bullish mode and should not fall below 0.9370-80, as potentially the move could extend beyond 0.9475
ReplyDelete"Correction". I have noted Big figure Error...
ReplyDeleteGMT 3:48 - AUD @ 0.9533 = Aussie is in a Bullish mode and should not fall below 0.9470-80, as potentially the move could extend beyond 0.9575.
Gold @ $ 1259 = BOOK YOUR PROFIT AROUND $ 1257-59.....CHEERS
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3530 = buy Euro around 1.3525-30. Stops 1.3482................
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1255 = I woudl wait to buy around $ 1247-50 levels. Stops $ 1243.......
ReplyDeleteHi sir
ReplyDeletePerfect start of the day
GBP and YEN view please too
Thanks
Watch Cable support around 1.5940-50, should hold but GBP is heavy around 1.60 and unless psh beyond 1.6040-50 should sip again. On the downside keep an eye on 1.5901.
ReplyDeleteJPY weak tone, unless fall below 98.95, Yen will trade in given band......
GBP @ 1.5938 = Do not buy Cable. hold on...............
ReplyDeleteWe see currencies stabilizing, Euro around 1.3490-00, Gbp around 1.5920-30 & Gold around $ 1250-52........for small up move...........
ReplyDeletefor up move is expected till where so any sellling level u sugest as now gold at 58 or do u suggest a buy or up move small sell as market is directionless can u suggest any selling level
ReplyDeleteNeeds to break $ 1262-65 levels or else another downside test posible, but as NYK will be entering soon, nothing can be said with assurance, as there are many factors, which is not provididng clearer direction.............
ReplyDeletesir
ReplyDeleteTP EURO short here and LONG now ?
GOLSD @ $ 1263 = book your profit around $ 1263-65....Cheers.................
ReplyDeleteEuro @ 1.3488 = Probable heading for 1.3450-60 levels.............
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1276 = Pick top around $ 1276-79. Apply stops if $ 1282-83 breaks...........
ReplyDeletei just sold Gold at 1274 SL 1278.50..is that ok
ReplyDeleteWell, seems Ok as the rally was due to large buying order $ 1278-80 is the crucial which not break.....cheers
ReplyDeleteI do not much up move in Euro & GBP.Another dips is possible if holds below 1.3530 & 1.5975..........
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1272 = It is cruicial for gold to dip below $ 1267-69 for more losses or esle we could see another upisde twest of $ 1278-80 zones..................
ReplyDeleteI WISH YOU A VERY HAPPY AND PEACEFUL EID
ReplyDeleteThank you & Eid Mubarak to you Moeen............
ReplyDeleteDear all, I will be on 3-day EID Holidays.
ReplyDeleteI will try to manage post. There can be delay in Daily Updates.
Full Time Commentary will resume from Monday Oct 21.
Eid Greeting to all...................
Eid Mubarak
ReplyDelete