Asad Rizvi
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
US Dollar came under renewed pressure, stocks are suffering, but gold that normally enjoys safe haven status did not benefit from shutdown tension. Senate has rejected the bill, which means shutdown officially begins at 3 GMT. It is expected that the default limit will be hit on October 17 if Congress fails to reach an agreement during this period. Though history suggest that USA has never defaulted on its debt.
Meanwhile, market volume is thin and trading activity is dull due to lack of direction. Italian uncertainty and weak German retail data was ignored by market waiting for US shutdown outcome. The situation in Europe is brittle and hence, further economic or political bad news could clobber European market. Euro surely looks vulnerable on the downside due to quite a few unfavourable factors..
Two major announcement will come from Japan and Australia. But Japanese news flash will be keenly watched, as market will be waiting to hear Japan's stimulus package, which is expected to provide relief to corporate sector. Australian Central Bank will take decision on interest rate, which is likely to hold, but its stance will probably remain soft.
GMT 2:55 - GOLD @ 1328 = In Asia and early Europe gold may have stronger tone and is buy on dips around $ 1323-25 levels, major support is around $ 1318-20 levels. On the upside break of $ 1335-238 zones is required for further gains or else gold will re-test support level.
GMT 3:00 - EURO @ 1.3527 = Euro could make small gains, but likely to exhaust around 1.3560 levels for a test of 1.3480-90 zones or else 1.3595.
GMT 3:05 - GBP @ 1.6233 = The current run-up should exhaust around 1.6250-60 levels, unless Cable moves beyond 1.6298, as GBP may re-test 1.6190-00 zones.
GMT 3:09 - JPY @ 98.29 = Break of 98.70-80 is required for a sharp move towards 99.90 or else risk is that if 97.50 surrenders, Japanese currency could make sharp gain.
GMT 3:13 - AUD @ 0.9335 = Aussie is required to move beyond 0.9370-80 zones for a test of 0.9420-40 area or else risk id for drop break 0.9280 will encourage for a test of 0.9230-40 zones.
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
GMT 2:55 - GOLD @ 1328 = In Asia and early Europe gold may have stronger tone and is buy on dips around $ 1323-25 levels, major support is around $ 1318-20 levels. On the upside break of $ 1335-238 zones is required for further gains or else gold will re-test support level.
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3527 = Euro could make small gains, but likely to exhaust around 1.3560 levels for a test of 1.3480-90 zones or else 1.3595.
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6233 = The current run-up should exhaust around 1.6250-50 levels, unless Cable moves beyond 1.6298, as GBP may re-test 1.6190-00 zones.
ReplyDeleteJPY @ 98.29 = Break of 98.70-80 is required for a sharp move towards 99.90 or else risk is that if 97.50 surrenders, Japanese currency could make sharp gain.
ReplyDeleteAUD @ 0.9335 = Aussie is required to move beyond 0.9270-80 zones for a test of 0.9420-40 area or else risk id for drop break 0.9280 will encourage for a test of 0.9230-40 zones.
ReplyDeletesir gold not moving on shutdown news..any view on it??
ReplyDeleteLack of confidence is the cause of slow up-move. Tapering threat is alos loomong.
ReplyDeleteMarket will remain choppy & confused. It is difficult to get hold of trend......
EURO @ 1.3577 = Book your profit and wait to go short, as this rally can hit 1.3605 before easing.................Cheers
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1337 = Book your profit around $1337-39..Cheers
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3570 = Sell around 1.3570-80 Stops 1.3525......................
ReplyDeleteAUD @ 0.9320 = Book your profit around 0.9420-30.........
ReplyDeletesir what about gbp after PMI data??
ReplyDeleteNothing new to add. View on GBP unchanged..................
ReplyDeleteabout gold nEXT
ReplyDeleteshut down means delay in payroll data
ReplyDeleteNo, why are you mixing shutdown with payroll. In the event o shutdown there will be closure of some of the departments that could effect nearly 700.000 to 800.000 workers.
ReplyDeleteThe government will function, but federal government employees may not get salaries due to non availability of funds, as funding requires congress/constitutional approval. Oct 01 is because fiscal years starts. It is estimated that government currently has cash USD 30 billion, which may be good for another2-weeks.
sir where to go long gold!!
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1316.60 = Don't be greedy. Book your profit...............Cheers
ReplyDeleteThis is rubbush I gave signal @ 1325 to sell for $ 1318, as NYK is selling with STOPS $ 1330 that did not appear................Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
ReplyDeleteok sir never mind..
ReplyDeletedo give post for long gold when u fel com4table..
GOLD @ $ 1316.60 = I would like to buy around $ 1310-12 zones, Stops $ 1305. However key is $ 1300-02 levels. Suspect gold can bounce backafter taking a dip
ReplyDeleteGold @ 1313 = do not buy could further dip ...................
ReplyDeleteBuy around $ 1292-95.Stops $ 1288................
ReplyDeletegold @ $ 1302 = could take another dip if fails to break $ 1306.........
ReplyDeleteBuy around $ 1275........if to keen
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1295 = I will not be surprised to see sharp up move. Next key on down side is $ 1275.....................
ReplyDeletenext in gold fall in gold is over or fall will come
ReplyDeleteIt is not that easy to make a perfect call.
ReplyDeletePlease understand the risk involved. As I said in my weekly post market will be choppy and unpredictable............
Holding Shorts in EU and GBP
ReplyDeleteUpdate sir
Thanks
GBP @ 1.6197 = book your profit around 1.6190-97......................
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3522 = Book your profit around 1.3513-23......cheers
GOLD @ $ 1287 = If willing to take risk buy around $ 1282-87. Do apply Stops $ 1277...............
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1286 = Dop not buy hold on................................
ReplyDeleteI am happy that despite being a tough day I ended up with proofitable day.
ReplyDeleteGold coudl still slip down to test $ 1270-75 zones before finding bottom.
Cheers until tomorrow..........................