Asad Rizvi
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
We
saw an interesting end of the week, as market sentiment shifted from US
shutdown to other global events such as writing-off of China’s largest bank bad
loan that had tripled forcing Chinese Central Bank to tighten the liquidity. Another
big topic of discussion is ECB stress test of 130 banks that may require providing
8 pct of the Capital, as the move will help to get closer to European Banking
Union.
Though
release of US jobs data, which is considered an important economic barometer
that normally is a market mover did not have much impact on the market, as data
uncertainty looms. Market has already priced in gloomier US economic numbers,
as US government’s partial shutdown will not only distort the economic numbers,
it is likely to have negative impact on US 4th quarter GDP growth,
which is likely to fall short by nearly 0.5 pct.
This
week, there is release of heavy batch of economic data’s from all over the
world. But market will be keenly waiting for FED statement that will be
followed after the Fed decision on interest rate to get clue on its tapering
stance.
Though
all indicators are clearly pointing that FED will maintain its easy monetary
policy and would continue with its asset purchase program due to softer
economic growth in third quarter, but nothing is firm on tapering until it
makes final announcement. However, the key to the FED statement will be hint of
possibility of December tapering, which many believe that it will once again be
delayed at least until 1st quarter of 2014.
Current
softness of US economy and with hint of further delay by FED to reduce its
asset purchase amount would weaken US Dollar. US bond yields will gain and
encourage commodities price to rise. Yen could also benefit from the news of
tapering delay. But any hint of tapering coming soon will have adverse impact.
GOLD @ 1351.90 = In my last week’s
note I have cautioned that the upside rally in gold would continue and this
week too there is no change in my view, as uptrend to continue. Dip would
opportunity to buy, but this week trading could be choppy with possibility of big
move corrective moves.
Support
for gold is at $ 1335 only break could see fall extending towards $ 13320-25
zones. However, see risk for a test and break of $ 1362-65 that would pave way
for $ 1375-80, as rally could extend up to $ 1390-95 zones and only break risks
for $ 1420. But break of major support levels means gold heading further down
to test $ 1275.
EURO @ 1.3800 = Softer economic
condition in 3rd quarter and recent partial US government shutdown
have strengthen the view that FED will delay tapering due to fiscal problems.
This reality has given safe haven status to Euro, as it is also enjoying Capital
inflows, which is one big factor helping Euro to make comeback after minor
correction.
Last
week’s call have been absolutely on the dot, as Euro did enter the 1.3825
before exhausting. I am expecting continuation of Euro’s upside rally, but
would like to caution, as the European currency needs to surpass a major
resistance levels of 1.3890-00 for 1.3950 or 1.4020. Failure to break
resistance levels would see a down move and break of 1.3770-90 is required to
test 1.3710, as 1.3640 is the next key support level that should hold. Range
for the week 1.3640 – 1.4050.
GBP @ 1.6162 = The up move was
in line of my expectation and as suggested Cable got exhausted below 1.6280,
which needs to be cleared for the next up move. There is a possibility of dip,
but 1.6080-90 should hold or else as strong challenge is around 1.6040. On the
up GBP needs has next resistance at 1.6325, break would encourage for 1.6380. Range
for week 1.6040-1.6410.
JPY @ 97.36 = Japanese
currency is stuck in a range, but demand for JPY is likely to persist. As long
as JPY offers resistance and fails to break 98.60, see risk for more gains. Break
of 96.50 will encourage for a move towards 95.60-70 area. Range for the week
95.40 – 98.90.
AUD
@ 0.9581 = Aussie have been struggling due to various
unfavorable factors and needs to hold 0.9510 for stability. However, a move
beyond 0.9680 for resumption of up move or else break of support levels would challenge
0.9440=50 zones. Range for the week 0.9440– 0.9750.
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
Hi There
ReplyDeleteShould we buy gold now
Around 1345-47
ReplyDeleteGold @ $ 1347 = could further dip to test and break $ 1345..........
ReplyDeleteEuro has protection around 1.3770-80 will hold.
ReplyDeleteGBP challenge around 1.6220-30, could be tough to crack.........
buy gold around 47 what sl should keep n buy at level is iti ok now
ReplyDeleteStops if $ 1342 breaks, but do take quick profit around $ 1352-55.........
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1352 = Gold will initially struggle to surpass $ 1352-54, this is why I am suggesting profit taking so that the metal can be purchase on another small dip. Break will encourage for test of $ 1358-60 zones..............
ReplyDeletesir should sell gold at round 53 n book profit
ReplyDeleteListen, manav I do not go against the trend unless too sure. I make recomendation with a strategy, as it is more important for me to provide you protection as well.
ReplyDeleteNow you could be right and if your comfortable go ahead. its is your risk.
I have nothing to suggest........
GBP 1.6165 = Anyone taking punt in GBP should book parofit around 1.6155- 65.....Cheers
ReplyDeleteEuro @ 1.3788 = View unchanged buy around 1.3770-80............Stops 1.3730
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1350.70 = buy around $ 1348-51. Stops $ 1343................
ReplyDeletesir what about gbp now !!
ReplyDeleteGBP range 1.6120 - 1.6210.............
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1355 = Waiting for a break $ 1357-58 levels for $ 1362 or esle re-test of $ 1348-50 before up again...............
ReplyDeleteshould we take profit at 1362
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1360 = Book your profit around $ 1360-62............cheers
ReplyDeleteeven though i have closed 1 position at 1359..still have 2 pos
ReplyDeleteOk, its your decison. I would suggest play safe...............
ReplyDeletePotentially could test $ 1365-68 zones if holds $ 1354...............
Ok pals, as usual another dull Monday.
ReplyDeleteCheers until tomorrow...................
closed all pos..Thank you very much
ReplyDeleteu r so predictable at gold i must say
waiting for your next gold call
ReplyDeleteI know that at times I am hash, but the purpose is to make everyone realize that I have a responisbility. Tough you all have to understand that I cannot be correct all the time. This why I give semons on discipline to have better control on trades.
Cheers to all..........