Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Europe Clueless after Greece Elections !

Market is stuck is a range trading and trying to determine next direction, as it are still clueless about the outcome of Greece elections. I suspect that neither Greece's newly elected government nor European policymakers are willing to confront on pending or coming issues unless it is necessary to intervene. 
Both are well aware of the consequences and the high price Europe may have to pay if separation or divorce takes place. 
Hence, both for the moment have adopt compromising attitude and wants to linger on for the time being. This is why minus Greece, which is faced with the crux of the problem, other European markets are behaving in an orderly manner. European bond and equity market is a good example. 

The bigger challenge is threat to EURO and Monetary Union, which could face big risk if at any point in time it is decided to part away with Greece.

The problem is that Greece has a massive debt, which cannot be corrected or checked at the current pace of growth and Syriza too has a valid argument that his country needs to do away with all the promise his predecessor made, as the conditions set by the Torika is too harsh for economic recovery that needs structural and economic changes of Greece's own liking.  

Therefore, I see every possibility of delay and time buying strategy from both the side until next maturity arrives. The demand from Torika would be for Greece to act, but European policy makers may adopt softer approach for some more time and the new Greece government will be looking for reason to escape. Just like French President Hollande refused to be dictated on issuess. France echoed for economic governance but was critical of commission. France was blessed for 2-extra years to bring down the deficit to EU limits. 

Though Greece is not France, but this is what politics is all about "Odds do have to Compromise". Greece is here to stay in monetary union as Europe cannot afford adventurism because of overall poor economic condition. Parting will surely lead to crack.

EURO @ 1.1330 = Hence, until there is some excitement in the economic front. Euro may hold around 1.1220-50 levels and needs to surpass 1.1390 for possible test of 1.1450 before down again. 

GOLD @ $ 1279 =  If gold holds around $ 1274-76, there is minor risk for test of $ 1285-90 zones before down again or else re-visit $ 1266 in unavoidable.      

6 comments:


  1. EURO @ 1.1375 = If went long Euro suggest taking profit around 1.1390-95 zones...........

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  2. GOLD @ $ 1269 = Book your $ 17 profit around $ 1267-69.......Cheers

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  3. Next preferred entry level is..........

    Gold $ 1263-65 Stops $ 1258

    EYRU around 1.1425-35 Stops 1.4180

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  4. AUD @ 0.7701 = Prefer selling around 0.7710-20 Stops 0.7760

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  5. Ok pals great day so far. Suggest squaring of all positions or do apply Stops......................Cheers

    ReplyDelete