Asad Rizvi
Nov 25 - Daily Updates on @asadcmka
USD = As we are approaching year end market should be cautious with long US Dollar position. Though nothing has changed, but year end book squaring could see some volatile moves in coming days and minor set-back in US Economic data would give reason for sharp moves. Preferable strategy would be entering at appropriate top and bottom levels to avoid risk of getting wrong footed,which could be painful due to choppy moves.
OIL = Some off the major event is OPEC meeting on Nov 27 and I see Oil Glut, which may be unavoidable in Near Term to Medium Term, as I see price war due to oversupply (stay tuned for detailed analysis)
GOLD = There was two positives for gold, Chinese rate cut, Draghi's pledge for quick stimulus package, which means QE soon. But they were not enough to give big boost to gold. This week as are approaching Swiss vote for 20 gold reserves, which is due on Nov 30, reports from Switzerland is not very encouraging for the gold bulls, as the tilt is towards nay.
Gold, which is currently trading near December 31, 2013 low, should close below this level, because in 2014 has been bad year for gold, as there was no major supportive factor. Instead unwinding of QE by FED is big blow and I will not be surprised to see sharp fall after Nov 30 Swiss vote, if it fails to get nod from Swiss voters and yes vote will only provide opportunity to the Bears for another kill before year end.
GOLD @ $ 1202 = On the up challenge is to break $ 1218 for $ 1235, which looks less likely to happen. However, break of support $ 1190 is required for $ 1178 that could be delayed.
EURO = @ 1.2391 = Pressure on Euro likely to stay this week, but support is around 1.2250-70. On the up, break of 1.2450 is required for 1.2530. Prefer to top to sell.
GBP 1.5651 = This week, Cable needs to break 1.5520-40 levels for deeper fall. However, sellers will remain active, as long as 1.5750-80 is held.
JPY @ 117.75 = Suspect that JPY could make strong comeback, if support levels 118.50-80 holds. However, break of 116.50-70 is required for 115.70
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