Asad Rizvi
It was JPY that was due for correction made gains against the US Dollar. US 10-year bond gain yields was a big supporting factor that helped Japanese currency to rise after surprise fall in US NFP numbers. JPY gain is not very surprising, as I have been hinting in my posts since last 10-days that Yen is due for correction and it cannot continue to take beating in a hope that Japanese government will be soon making stimulus announcement. Now they have to act, such verbal statements will be less effective.
In another interesting move US 10-year bond yield has gained substantial strength upsetting Bullish view after the release of US Payroll data in a hope that FED may slow the pace of tapering. This could be an effort by major bond players to bring change in sentiment, but may not the reality, as one or two weak data will not help to change the policy. If we look at the recent release of US economic data in boarder perspective then overall US economy is doing well and poor Payroll data is just one bad event. In an immediate response after the release of bad Payroll data the two FED officials have already focused on continuation of FED ongoing FED's strategy, its two other official Plosser and Fisher are due to make speeches, they will provide more direction.
Today's release of Retail Sales will be one of the major data announcement of the week, which should guide market for its next move during rest of the week.
GMT 3:44 - GOLD @ $ 1252 = I do not see gold stretching beyond $ 1254-56 and would prefer selling. Needs to push below $ 1247-48 for a test of $ 1240-42 or else $ 1258-60.
GMT 3:58 - EURO @ 1.3662 = Euro has resistance around 1.3690-95 and may hold, but is required to push below 1.3625-30 levels for 1.3580-90 zones or else could retest the resistance level or else 1.3720.
GMT 4:03 - GBP @ 1.6386 = Cable may struggle to move beyond 1.6425. A fall below 1.6310-15 will see more losses. Or else 1.6455.
GMT 4:07 - JPY 103.47 = JPY is required to move beyond 103.70-90 levels for a move towards 104.40, which looks difficult as it can potentially make another attempt to test 102.50-80 zones.
GMT 4:11 - AUD @ 0.9033 = We may have seen the top and Aussie could exhaust around 0.9060-65. However, as long as 0.8970-80 holds, it could make another small up move. Break of 0.9090-00 will threaten for more AUD gains.
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
EURO @ 1.3662 = Euro has resistance around 1.3690-95 and may hold, but is required to push below 1.3625-30 levels for 1.3580-90 zones or else could retest the resistance level or else 1.3720.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6386 = Cable may struggle to move beyond 1.6425. A fall below 1.6310-15 will see more losses. Or else 1.6455.
ReplyDeleteJPY 103.48 = JPY is required to move beyond 103.70-90 levels for a move towards 104.40, which looks difficult as it can potentially make another attempt to test 102.50-80 zones.
AUD @ 0.9033 = We may have seen the top and Aussie could exhaust around 0.9060-65. However, as long as 0.8970-80 holds, it could make another small up move. Break of 0.9090-00 will threaten for more AUD gains.
ReplyDeleteMorning Sir,
ReplyDeleteGOLD:
OK Sir, standing by and will wait for your clear signal "when to buy or sell"
Thanks
JPY @ 104.25 = If went Long JPY around 104.50, place your purchase level as Stops and hold for dip below 104...............
ReplyDeleteGold @ 1254... Go short around these levels sir?
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1254 = No change in View - Try to pick Top around $ 1254-56 & Sell with Stop Loss @ $ 1260.............
ReplyDeleteView on currencies remains unchanged..............
ReplyDeleteEYURO 1.3690 = Sell around 1.3692-98. S/L 1.3730....
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6426 = sell around 1.6426-32. stop Loss 1.6460...........
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1250 = Book your profit around $ 1248-50.........Cheers
ReplyDeleteJPY @ 103.70 =OK, hope long Yen got rid at buying levels . Next Long Yen is preferred around 103.78-88. Stop Loss 104.10.............
ReplyDeleteAUD @ 0.9000 = Book your profit around 0.8990-00.....Cheers
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6435 = square before data............
ReplyDeleteHi sir
ReplyDeleteI am still holding GBP shorts... took risk
Close level please
Thanks
sir what abt gbp after data!!
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6420 = Ok now Pound has seen the Top. Sell around 1.6420-30 with Stops Loss 1.6455....
ReplyDeleteGOLD:
ReplyDeleteSir, GBP data is weak, which means USD gets strong. Does that also means Gold gets weaker too. Kindly advice.
Thanks
Faisal, there is no correlation..........
ReplyDeleteOK Sir,
ReplyDeleteThank you for the guidance.
GOLD @ $ 1248.50 = preferred buying levels around $ 1245-46. Stops $ 1240....
ReplyDeleteGOLD:
ReplyDeleteSir, as it seems hesitating going below 1248-47. Would you suggest buying here or shall we stick on to look for dip around 1245-46 levels ? Kindly advice.
Thanks
When I am quiet and you want to trade then its your decision, as I have nothing to suggest.
ReplyDeleteI am quiet because of many factors that I have to watch.........
My apology Sir.
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6442 = Cable could surge sharply if retail sales disappoints. re-thing about holding strategy.........
ReplyDeleteSELL GOLD U D UP
ReplyDeleteSell Gold around $ 1252-54 Stops b$ 1258......
ReplyDeleteHold your Euro Sale for 1.3630..............
ReplyDeletesir what abt gbp!!
ReplyDeleteBuy on dip, square Cable position around 1.6400-10. Do not fight trend........
ReplyDeleteJPY @ 103.60 = Could test 103.80-90 zones. Should hold 103.40, before gaining.......
ReplyDeletegbp sold at 1.6440 where should book profit ?
ReplyDeletepd, please send me your mailing address. I inform you through courier service, because you are not reading me correctly....... :)
ReplyDelete:D
Deletesir actually net is very slow so i coudn't read your above msg thats why i asked again
ReplyDeletepd, you must be a cute KID because your net is slow, you could not get my post, but your managed to send me a post & your net is good enough to reply. I am sure you must have book profit by now........
ReplyDeleteKeep smiling...............
yes sir i booked profit around 1.6410 ..and close the position ..
ReplyDeleteExcellent.......
ReplyDeletesir any position for going long aud!!
ReplyDeletepd, do not spoil your good day................
ReplyDeleteOk pals, suggest closing all positions.......
ReplyDeleteIf you wish to carry on, do apply Stop loss..
Cheers until tomorrow................
sir in gold whatg todo ng sellin positiong
ReplyDelete