Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Tuesday, January 07

Asad Rizvi


The non-manufacturing ISM report that covers service sector may have pushed USD downward and helped US 10-year bond yield to make gains, but I am not so sure that how ISM data index of 53 against expectation of 53.9 could have bigger impact on the market, as anything above 50 is considered good. ISM service data is not a large contributor to the US economy, as manufacturing is of more relevance, though it has links related to employment. I think it is all about market perception.
Earlier data released from Europe was good enough to support Euro, as indication are that the European economy is gradually picking up. So far France is disappointing, but Spain is constantly doing well providing good support to the Euro-zone sentiment, However, today's release of German Retail sales and Unemployment data may add some excitement before Thursday's ECB policy announcement.

GOLD @ $ 1241.48 = In Asia I am expecting gold to hold $ 1237 levels for a test of $ 1245-48 zones. Where top should be picked again as $ 1253 should not surrender for re-test of $ 1235-37 zones. Therefore  I see double trading opportunity, if purchased on dip.
GMT 3:17 - EURO @ 1,3629 = I am expecting 1.3695-05 to hold for a test of 1,3650-60 levels and may fail to surpass for another dip. break of 1.3560 is required for deeper fall. However, a move beyond 1.3710 is required for more gains.
GMT 3:23 - GBP @ 1.6398 = Pound may hold around 1.6420-25 for a small dip, but is likely to get support around 1.6350-60, break risks for 1.6320. However, on the up break of 1st resistance level will encourage for 1.6550.  
GMT 3: 28 - JPY @ 104.35 = JPY is likely to hover between 103.70 and 104.90 levels, break of top or bottom or bottom will open gap by another 50 pip move, but unlikely to make any unusual move.
GMT 3: 33 - AUD @ 0.8943 = Though odds are against Aussie, but I would remain cautious, as only break of 0.8905 would increase risk for test of 0.8880. However, I will not be surprised to see extension of up move towards 0.9025 on break of 0.8980-90 levels.


DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

30 comments:




  1. GOLD @ $ 1241.48 = In Asia I am expecting gold to hold $ 1237 levels for a test of $ 1245-48 zones. Where top should be picked again as $ 1253 should not surrender for re-test of $ 1235-37 zones. Therefore I see double trading opportunity, if purchased on dip.

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  2. EURO @ 1,3629 = I am expecting 1.3695-05 to hold for a test of 1,3650-60 levels and may fail to surpass for another dip. break of 1.3560 is required for deeper fall. However, a move beyond 1.3710 is required for more gains.

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  3. GBP @ 1.6398 = Pound may hold around 1.6420-25 for a small dip, but is likely to get support around 1.6350-60, break risks for 1.6320. However, on the up break of 1st resistance level will encourage for 1.6550.

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  4. JPY @ 104.35 = JPY is likely to hover between 103.70 and 104.90 levels, break of top or bottom or bottom will open gap by another 50 pip move, but unlikely to make any unusual move.

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  5. AUD @ 0.8943 = Though odds are against Aussie, but I would remain cautious, as only break of 0.8905 would increase risk for test of 0.8880. However, I will not be surprised to see extension of up move towards 0.9025 on break of 0.8980-90 levels.

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  6. GOLD @ $ 1245 = Book your profit around $ 1245-47......Cheers

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  7. GOLD @ $ 1240= The move was quick, but hope that after taking profit beyond $ 1245 levels, you must have went short gold as suggested in my morning post that there is double trading opportunity.

    Now, book your profit around $ 1238-40.................Cheers

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  8. GOLD @ $ 1238.50 = Preferable buying level around $ 1236-38. Stops $ 1232.........

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  9. sir shall go long aud at 0.8915??

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  10. AUD @ 0.8912 = Book your profit around 0.8905 -10 if went short and wait for possible dip, as fall could stretch .......

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  11. GBP @ 1.6385 = GBP could hold around 1.6370-80 for another upside test. Should stay above 1.6340....

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  12. sir holding buy gold around 1238 ok sir

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  13. GBP @ 1.6425 = book your profit around 1.6425-32....Cheers

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  14. GBP @ 1.6435 = No selling plan until 1.6470-80........

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  15. EURO @ 1.3648 = The expected move has occurred. Book your profit around 1.3650-60.....Cheers

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  16. GOLD @ $ 1238.50 = The key for gold is to break $ 1242 on the upside for $ 1246. I see risk for a test of $ 1234-35 zones., break could extend down move towards $ 1232. So watch out and plan accordingly........

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  17. after us data netx in gold last post is ok

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  18. If you have flipped your position by going short around $ 1239. Cut your position at your sale level if hit & wait for next post............

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  19. GOLD @ $ 1232 = Book your profit around $ 1230-32.....Cheers

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  20. What next Sir,

    Should we enter into a long trade on Gold from here?

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  21. Risk if if hold below $ 1235-36 break of $ 1229 could test $ 1226...........

    Prefer watching........

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  22. any selling or buying vel in gold wiyth sl

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  23. GOLD @ $ 1228 = Pick on dip & buy around $ 1225-28. Stops $ 1222........................

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  24. Nothing much to suggest in AUD. Today there was ample of opportunity to trade in GBP, EURO & GOLD. Did you trade or you are only are AUD that has move in a 25 pip band..........!!

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  25. sir took profit in euro in two trades :) thanks :)

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  26. Ok pals, if you have sold Euro, as per morning post then place your selling level as Stops if Euro moves upside, as looking for a test of 1.3680-90.....

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  27. Ok, it was another perfect day.................

    Cheers until tomorrow..............

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