Asad Rizvi
So far financial market witnessed a quiet week in the absence of any major data release. In currencies, it was GBP that enjoyed the most and yesterday's UK unemployment rate falling to 7.1 pct and fall in jobless claims gave further boost to Pound Sterling. Further BOE minutes suggested that despite quick fall in unemployment rate there is need to hike rates, which did not bother GBP that rose against USD and hitting 1-year high versus Euro.
While, today market could differently because of some important data release from Europe. Spanish unemployment and PMI data could provide some guideline, as couple of the ECB officials have shown their reservations about economic recovery in the Euro-zone region and seemed to be prepared for for stimulus.
While, data due today from USA initial jobless claims and existing home sales may not be major market mover, but any big change in number could give reason to move the market, which could be both ways, as market will be more keen in next weeks monetary policy announcement.
GMT 3:09 - GOLD @ $ 1235 = Gold may struggle to move beyond $ 1240 and may exhaust around $ 1236-38 levels. Break $ 1227-29 zones will encourage for $ 1220-22, as see risk of fall extending towards $ 1211-13 zones. Move beyond $ 1245 will delay down move.
GMT 3:18 - EURO @ 1.3552 = Real challenge is to break 1.3560-70 zones for 1.3590-95, which looks tough. However, downside break of 1.3502 is required for 1.3470. While, upside break will open gates for 1.3625.
GMT 3:25 - GBP @ 1.6572 = For now Cable may hold around 1.6595-03 levels, but needs to fall below 1.6540 for 1.6510. Upside break will challenge 1.6650. However, buyers are expected to hop in if dips. Major protection is around 1.6470-80 levels.
GMT 3:29 - JPY @ 104.46 = JPY is likely to trade in a band may hold 104.25 or else 103.95 for 104.80-90. Break will encourage for a test of 105.20 levels.
GMT 3:32 - AUD @ 0.8802 = Aussie will struggle to move beyond 0.8830-50 zones, break of 0.8765-70, will see drop extending towards 0.8745-50 zones.
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
GMT 3:08 - GOLD @ $ 1235 = Gold may struggle to move beyond $ 1240 and may exhaust around $ 1236-38 levels. Break $ 1227-29 zones will encourage for $ 1220-22, as see risk of fall extending towards $ 1211-13 zones. Move beyond $ 1245 will delay down move.
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3552 - Real challenge is to break 1.3560-70 zones for 1.3590-95, which looks tough. However, downside break of 1.3502 is required for 1.3470. While, upside break will open gates for 1.3625.
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6572 = For now Cable may hold around 1.6595-03 levels, but needs to fall below 1.6540 for 1.6510. Upside break will challenge 1.6650. However, are expected to hop if dips. Major protection is around 1.6470-80 levels.
ReplyDeleteJPY @ 104.46 = JPY is likely to trade in a band may hold 104.25 or else 103.95 for 104.80-90. Break will encourage for a test of 105.20 levels.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteAUD @ 0.8802 = Aussie will struggle to move beyond 0.8830-50 zones, break of 0.8765-70, will see drop extending towards 0.8745-50 zones.
Morning Sir,
ReplyDeleteGOLD: Sir, picked the top around 1236.40 to go short.
Thanks
Ok Faisal, there is no change in view...............
ReplyDeleteOK. Thank you Sir.
ReplyDeleteGold could climb to test $ 1239-40 before easing............
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1238 = Ok, gold i sell now around $ 1238-40...........
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3565 = No Change in view. Sell around 1.3565-70. Stops 1.3595.........
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3593 = The surge is surely due to better FRENCH PMI, Euro is likely to trade in a 1.3560- 1.3610 band after surge, because of bad Spanish unemployment data exceeding expectation..........
ReplyDeleteI would re-buy around 1.3610-20 if seen..................
EURO @ 1.3538 = Buy Euro around 1.3540-50. Stops Loss 1.3690........
ReplyDeletehi sir
ReplyDeleteSorry I am not clear about your Euro view
Little confuse
Please explain
Thanks
Euro is 1.3630.. buy here with SL 1.3590 ?>
DeleteIn trading such mistakes are called Fat Finger mistake.
ReplyDeletePlease read buying level as 1.3640-50. Apologies.................
Ok sir
ReplyDeleteBut any good reason to buy at that high levels ?
Sorry sir actually 100 pips difference from low and you hardly gave any buy signal at that levels before.
Thank you
Honestly, this was unexpected, which I could not catch, but had a hint of some unusual move coming, this is why I gave a close Stop Loss of 1.3595.
ReplyDeleteThis could be due to short covering or large Asian or M/E order.
I still believe prior to US data, Euro should test 1.36 levels........
gold on sell side view unvchanged
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1244 = cruising around crucial level $ 1245-46........Apply Stops if breaks..
ReplyDeleteSir,Any Chances of Gold to come down?
ReplyDeleteTHanks
NYK is different market, cannot tell more than that right now...........
ReplyDeleteIt is important to realize that at times there factors beyond one's reach, which
makes trading difficult. Specially when there is large orders or Computer glitch
This is why I always keep on repeating to apply stop loss.
At the moment $ 1240-42 may hold for another test of $ 1247-48. There is a
risk for a test of $ 1250-52 zones, unless fall below $ 1238...........
sir any levels for selling gold?
ReplyDeletepd, let market settle down a bit, though we have seen test of $ 1250............
ReplyDeletesir what about currencies and gold after data!!
ReplyDeleteThere is another data PMI due in 5 minutes....
ReplyDeleteGold is probing $ 1258-60 another crucial level.
Good data will halt the rally or else we could see some more US Dollar losses....
Could test $ 1265 1.3680 & 1.6640-50
ReplyDeleteshould buy gbp 1.66
ReplyDeleteNo, GBP is a sell.....................
ReplyDeleteand sir what abt aud??
ReplyDeleteeuro if dip 1.3640?
ReplyDeleteTow ideal levels to trade
ReplyDeleteJPY around 103.55. Stop Loss 103.20
GBP around 1.6620-30. stop loss 1.6660.....
AUD around 0.8810-20.Stop Loss 0.8855
gold buy is prefered for 65 if yes n sl
ReplyDeleteno manav, Gold rally may ease if holds around or below $ 1258-60. Patience....
ReplyDeleteOk pals, I intentionally avoided aggressive trading after 2-bad calls in Gold & Euro. Hopefully tomorrow is going to be a better day.
ReplyDeleteCheers until tomorrow...................