Asad Rizvi
After some volatile moves seen due to
year end market will be getting back into normal trading activity. Economic
news should once again dominate the market. On Friday, Bernanke tried to
convince the market by giving reasoning and defending in support of his
unconventional monetary policy that how money printing and extremely easy
policy stance during last 6-years helped to avoid recession. One thing that has
not been discussed is that how FED will shrink the size of its balance sheet or
it is not bothered about the size.
This week there is barrage of economic data due to be released from all over
the globe. Few of them will provide guidance about the economic performance in
Europe and USA. But once again focus will be on Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll and
Unemployment data that could play vital role in determining the trend and
direction.
Two more importable event of the week is BOE & ECB policy announcement,
which is likely to remain on hold. BOE do have a task in its hand as its
housing market is heating, but this may not the appropriate time for Mark Carney
to act. One thing that needs to be watched with care is the possible change in BOE’s
bond purchase amount, which is currently GP 375 Billion, though not a favorable
scenario.
ECB too may not have enough reason to slash its interest rate in its 1st
meeting of the New Year, as growth is gradually picking up in the Euro-zone,
which may be comforting factor for ECB not to act. However, as always it is going to be Draghi’s
press conference that will attract attention. Though in one of his recent
appearance he has said that he does not see a need for further rate cut, but he
has a habit to confuse market and may opt for softer tone to maintain a balance
and let market guessing about ECB’s future strategy.
GOLD
@ $ 1237.60 = Gold gained as per expectation in thin
market condition, as holder s of gold position made every effort to halt the
slide and attain better closing level due to year end. This could be good
opportunity for sellers to step in to pick the top and sell Yellow metal, as risk
is that strong US data will counter FED’s idea of maintaining low interest rate
for longer period of time. Strong US growth and FED Tapering is a threat for
gold. FED minutes could damage the sentiments of gold Bulls.
Next crucial level is $ 1247-53 zones
break risks for a test of $ 1262-65. However, I am expecting gold to exhaust around
1st resistance level. On the
down side break of $ 1210-12 is required for a test for a steep fall. Break of
$ 1192 will encourage for a test of $ 1175 ones.
EURO
@ 1.3587 = Euro did enjoyed some unusual strength in the
absence of major market players overlooking US economic gains. But in the
presence of full fledged trading activity, economic data will provide the direction.
Initially Euro needs to hold around 1.3520 levels that should help Euro to move
towards 1.3650-80 zones. Break will encourage for a test of 1.3725 before easing
testing week’s new low. Or else the fall could extend to test 1.3420-40 zones.
GBP
@ 1.6417 = Initially Pound could come under pressure, but
needs to hold around 1st support levels of 1.6320-50 levels or else fall could
extend to test 1.6250 zones. However, if Pound survives to hold 1st
support levels we could another upside test 1.65625 remains strong resistance
level. I am expecting Cable to trade in a 1.6220-1.6550 range.
JPY
@ 104.84 = Yen weakness will depend on clearance of barrier
105.50 and 105.90 for 106.25. However, JPY could potentially challenge down move
and could make gains break 104.10 will encourage for test of 103.50-80 zones
before Japanese currency heads for new lows.
AUD
@ 0.8944 = Aussie should find strong support around 0.8860
levels and may further recover on break of 0.9020 for a test of 0.9050-70
zones. Any move beyond should find sellers. On the downside break of support
levels will encourage for a move towards 0.8780.
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
Hello Sir
ReplyDeleteAny Trade worth entering in GOLD?
Thanks
HOLD @ $ 1240= Book your profit around $ 1238- 40 and pick bottom to go long with Stop Loss $ 1232...........Cheers
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.6360 = Book your profit around 1.6350-60 and go long around lows with Stop Loss 1.6310 for 1.6390-00.........
ReplyDeleteJPY @ 104.30 = If JPy hold 105.55 could dip to teat and break 104.05 for 103.85-90.If long Yen squaring preferred ........
ReplyDeleteAUD @ 0.8951 = Suspect that 0.8980 may hold & Aussie could dip to test 0.8885 on break of 0.8905...
ReplyDeleteGBP @1.6350 = Though testing lows. Do not go long now..............
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3585 = It seems Euro will hold 1.3540-50 for a test of 1.3625.......
ReplyDeleteBuy gold around $ 1236-38. Stops $ 1232
ReplyDeleteaus should hold short ?
ReplyDeleteYes Safil, hold short AUD, needs to break 0.8930-35 for 0.8905. Keep a close watch on 0.8980-90..Cheers
ReplyDeleteGOLD @$ 1236.50 = good time to buy gold........
ReplyDeleteSo I have just noted that it was pd's query about Aussie & not Safil's............
ReplyDeleteGBP to test 1.6310......should hold 1.6380........
ReplyDeletesir gbp view same!!
ReplyDeleteWell you have watch 1.6380-90 levels, though could be around top........
ReplyDeletesir gold view same!!
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1236.60 = A word on Gold. Since is stuck in a narrow band, it needs to move beyond $ 1238-39 failing would risk for a test of $ 1231-33 zones. i would prefer squaring now and wait for market to find direction in US market.
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1241.50 = Sell around $ 1241.50 -1243. Stops $ 1248.............
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3618 = book your profit around 1.3618-25............cheers
ReplyDeleteAUD @ 0.8944 = Either square now or cut you AUD position at your buying level......but do square around 0.8925-30.............
ReplyDeletesir what abt gbp!!
ReplyDeleteSince GBP broke 1.6380-90 now should test 1.6425-35 zones...........
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1247 = There is risk for a test of $ 1248-50 zones. However, it is preferable to square on any dip around $ 1242-44 levels prior to test days new highs.
ReplyDeleteOk pals, cheers until tomorrow..............
ReplyDeleteHi sir
ReplyDeleteFirst trade after vacations
lol... Great one sir Great one
Sold at 1243 and 1247
closed at 1226
thanks
Cheers Moeen................as always
ReplyDeleteThis is because you believe in my logic/commetary instead of trading on tics.........
Thanks
Indeed Sir
ReplyDeleteIt was a Phenomenal Gold Short
Closed @ 1225
Thanks & Big Cheers to that....
Safil, I am happy for you. Cheers...................
ReplyDelete