Friday, January 10, 2014

Friday, January 10

Asad Rizvi



After listening to Draghi's press conference, Europe is clearly not out of woods. Germany's growth pace is not enough to counter Euro-zone problems that may have softened temporarily, but could re-emerge, as there are plenty of risk factors that cannot be ignored. Deflation is the biggest threat that is looming over the Euro-zone region and this is why there was a minor shift in ECB stance, as its President was sounding more Dovish. He clearly hinted that if the trend continues ECB will have to use all the allowed available monetary tools. 
The story is different in USA. If we try to keep a track of recent release of US economic data, it clearly indicates that the economy is growing at a much healthier pace. ADP data released this week that covers activity in the private sector was encouraging hinting good growth, which means better job condition in USA. Similarly data of manufacturing and service sector industry is also supportive. It all point to another improved economic condition in USA. Hence, today's US job data should not disappoint the Bulls, as yesterday's initial jobless claims was another good proof of improving job market in USA.

GMT 3:06 - GOLD @ $ 1235 = Sell around $ 1236-38, with Stop loss $ 1242. for test of $ 1227-30 zones.
On a bigger note Needs to fall below $ 1215 for break of $ 1202 for $ 1192. While move beyond $ 1248 risks for a test of $ 1255-60 levels.
GMT 3:16 - EURO @ 1.3512 = Euro could potentially move towards 1.3535-50 zones before data and should hold above 1.3570. However move beyond 1.3680-90 would risk for sharp gains towards 1.38 zones. Similarly 1.3510-20 is the key level on the downside, break will threaten to test 1.3450. 
GMT 3:20 - GBP @ 1.6477 = Bullish sentiment for Pound Sterling is intact and during early Euro may hold above 1.6440 and 1.6410 should not surrender for a move towards 1.6490 or 1.6510. On the downside, unless 1.6310-20 surrender, buy on dips is preferred. 
GMT 3:29 - JPY @ 104.90 = is currently too dependent on Japanese stock market moves, as it awaits for more stimulus package. Unless 105.30-35 zones is cleared there is risk for Japanese currency making more gains. Break of 104.55 risk for a test of 10410-20 zones or possibly 103.80-90 levels before easing.  However, break of support level may challenge 105.80 for 106.40.
GMT 3:32 - AUD @ 0.8903 = Aussie is required to surpass 0.8925-30 levels for a visit to 0.8950-60 zones or else 0.8880-85.



DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.

37 comments:

  1. GMT 3:06 - GOLD @ $ 1235 = Sell around $ 1236-38, with Stop loss $ 1242. for test of $ 1227-30 zones.
    On a bigger note Needs to fall below $ 1215 for break of $ 1202 for $ 1192. While move beyond $ 1248 risks for a test of $ 1255-60 levels.

    ReplyDelete

  2. EURO @ 1.3512 = Euro could potentially move towards 1.3535-50 zones before data and should hold above 1.3570. However move beyond 1.3680-90 would risk for sharp gains towards 1.38 zones. Similarly 1.3510-20 is the key level on the downside, break will threaten to test 1.3450.

    ReplyDelete
  3. GBP @ 1.6477 = Bullish sentiment for Pound Sterling is intact and during early Euro may hold above 1.6440 and 1.6410 should not surrender for a move towards 1.6490 or 1.6510. On the downside, unless 1.6310-20 surrender, buy on dips is preferred.

    ReplyDelete
  4. JPY @ 104.90 = is currently too dependent on Japanese stock market moves, as it awaits for more stimulus package. Unless 105.30-35 zones is cleared there is risk for Japanese currency making more gains. Break of 104.55 risk for a test of 10410-20 zones or possibly 103.80-90 levels before easing. However, break of support level may challenge 105.80 for 106.40.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AUD @ 0.8903 = Aussie is required to surpass 0.8925-30 levels for a visit to 0.8950-60 zones or else 0.88

    ReplyDelete
  6. Sir,

    GOLD: Is this a Waving Flag Pattern forming in M15 chart, which indicates a sharp movement of the prices up? Kindly advice

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  7. Faisal, be very clear about me. I have my own working strategy and I do not believe in Chart working except that I only draw trend lines to determine the level.

    Basically my working is based on fundamentals and economic happening and for that I have to do lot of reading/research work to reach a point.

    This is huge topic that I have discussed at length with world known Fx Gurus during my association a bank that was considered world number one in Fx trading.

    I have worked for bank that was pioneer in Derivative trading that was 1st time introduced by my bank in 1987.

    I think now will have better understanding about me !

    Cheers

    Thanks

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  8. GOLD @ $ 1237 = Pick top to sell Stop Loss $ 1242...........

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  9. Certainly Sir,

    Got your point. I apologize for any inconvenience and will follow your guidelines in order to stick with the plan.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Not at all. This is how you guys will learn. The idea is pass knowledge and exchange views and learn from each other. At times I may be harsh, but you all have understand that its a learning curve. I have to be fair to everyone, as
    I have a bigger responsibility and I have to mange accordingly with a balanced approach. Thanks

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  11. Buy GBP around 1.6400-10. stops 1.6370...............

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  12. GOLD @ $ 1231 = book your profit around $ 1228-31.......................Cheers

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  13. AUD @ 0.8892 = Buy around 0.8875. Stops 0.8840........

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  14. hi all, i would suggest closing all positions before NFP data.......

    Cheers

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  15. sir what is your general idea abt Nfp today!!

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  16. Ok pals, today I will be leaving a hour earlier, 1/2 hours after Payroll data, as I have to accompany son to the airport. He is leaving for UK for higher studies.

    Thanks

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  17. Previous jobs number suggest do not jump watch trend.....

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  18. Keep a close watch on my morning levels for break out.........

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  19. GOLD:

    Sir, Data is 74K

    Should go Long or go Short ? OR wait for your call ?

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  20. Ideally Sell JPY below 103.80 Stops loss 103.10..................

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  21. view about gold euro and gbp ?

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  22. Gold may hold $ 1232-38 for test of $ 1248-50............


    worth taking risk below $ 1240............

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  23. soory may hold $ 1232-34...............

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  24. Nothing to add, i have already said keep a watch on morning break out levels..........

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  25. so nothing position now taken wait for u clear signal gold

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  26. manav, your call if you are too eager......

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  27. i have no taken postion all position cleared before data.. should go long in euro ?

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  28. Two important points is that Payroll is down due to weather condition and 6.7 pct means it is close to FED 2015 target of 6.5 pct. Still too tricky........

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  29. 1.3580- 1.3690

    GBP 1.6410 - 1.6510

    JPY 103.90 - 104.80

    $ 1232 - $ 1250

    ReplyDelete
  30. Market is still very confused and unsure about the direction. I would suggest caution and applying Stop Loss.

    Sorrt I have to leave.

    Cheers until next week

    ReplyDelete