Asad Rizvi
Yesterday market witnessed Euro making small recovery after Draghi came to its rescue following barrage of ECB's offiical statement fearing deflation in the Euro-zone region at various forums. Basically this conflicting statement is nothing more than balancing act to arrest any extraordinary currency movement and apply breaks on possible uncertain market condition. It is evident that with the ongoing economic condition Europe cannot afford strong currency. This month Drahi is on record that in his monetary policy follow-up speech he has already shown his concern about possibility of deflation and in Europe and hinting that ECB could consider negative deposit rate and LTRO if necessary.
Importantly it is German economy that is providing breathing space to Europe, minor growth recovery in Spain is a mere book entry and not economic recovery in real sense to overcome the financial mess. France remains a bigger threat and Italy is unpredictable that can tilt o the worst. Banking sector reforms, growth, jobs and deficit are all unsettled European issues. In such an uncertain condition thinking of positive economic condition makes no sense. Europe is brittle.
Whereas, US economic numbers suggest that the recovery may have been delayed/slowed, but the overall performance is not too concerning. Jobs claim fell and this should encourage Payroll data due in two-weeks time. I think anytime market mood will suddenly turn Bullish for US Dollar.
Meanwhile, Pound Sterling continues to enjoy its ongoing strength, as economic condition continues to support British currency. UK borrowing has declined, which is a healthy sign indicating increase in revenue collection, two-major parameters of economy housing and manufacturing are providing enough support to push the confidence level high.
GMT 3:14 - EURO @ 1.3471 = Euro should hold below 1.3492-98 levels and is required to break 1.3430-35 to test 1.3405-10 levels. 1.3555 is the key level to watch on upside.
GMT 3:21 - GOLD @ $ 1244.60 = Today, I suspect $ 1238-40 may hold and unless $ 1234 breaks on the downside, see risk for upside test, break of $ 1251-53 will encourage for a move towards $ 1258-60 zones.
GMT 3:32 - GBP @ 1.6185 = Investors confidence level is still too high and Cable is required to fall below 1.6080 to slow down the pace of rally. However, 1st support level is around 1.6140 that may hold for a test of 1.6215-20 zones, but may exhaust, as it needs to make a clear break for 1.6250-60, which mat not happens if it finds earlier resistance.
GMT 3:35 - JPY @ 101.27 = A long as 100.50-70 holds the weakness of Japanese currency could continue an may test 101.80-90 zones.
GMT 3:42 - AUD @ 0.9181 = The plunge is caused by large sale of currency but support is at 0.9120-40 should hold for another test of 0.9230-50 zones or else 0.9110.
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
GMT 3:14 - EURO @ 1.3471 = Euro should hold below 1.3492-98 levels and is required to break 1.3430-35 to test 1.3405-10 levels. 1.3555 is the key level to watch on upside.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1244.60 = Today, I suspect $ 1238-40 may hold and unless $ 1234 breaks on the downside, see risk for upside test, break of $ 1251-53 will encourage for a move towards $ 1258-60 zones.
GBP @ 1.6185 = Investors confidence level is still too high and Cable is required to fall below 1.6080 to slow down the pace of rally. However, 1st support level is around 1.6140 that may hold for a test of 1.6215-20 zones, but may exhaust, as it needs to make a clear break for 1.6250-60, which mat not happens if it finds earlier resistance.
ReplyDeleteJPY @ 101.27 = A long as 100.50-70 holds the weakness of Japanese currency could continue an may test 101.80-90 zones.
ReplyDeleteAUD @ 0.9181 = The plunge is caused by large sale of currency but support is at 0.9140-50 should hold for another test of 0.9230-50 zones or else 0.9110.
ReplyDeleteAUD @ 0.9205 = Profit should be taken around 0.9210-20
ReplyDeleteEuro @ 1.3488 = No Change in View.........
GBP @ 1.6195 = Sell around 1.6220-30. Stops 1.6260
JPY @ 100.96 = Sell around 100.80 Stops 100.35
GOLD @ $ 1245.80 == Profit should be taken around $ 1248-5. Shrt prefer around $ 1252-55. Stops $ 1259, as I do not see upside rally until NYK.......
waiting for 1248 1250 to book profit ok sir is it ok for now
ReplyDeleteBook your profit around 1.6220-30 & pick top to sell apply Stops..
ReplyDeleteSir, any chances of euro coming down?
ReplyDeleteYes, I am waiting for a dip to around 1.35 levels to square. Surprisingly better than expected German IFO is helpiong Euro.
ReplyDeleteBut do not hold when dips to around 1.35 and apply Stops if hit.
Got it, I'll square it at loss @ 1.3500. Will be waiting for ur next signal on euro
ReplyDeleteOk, but I have signaled to sell around 1.3492-98. What is your Euro selling level...........
ReplyDeleteMine is 1.34800
ReplyDeletesir about gold moring post is intact what to do in gold bying position hold toiill us opens
ReplyDeleteOk, apply Stops only when I tell you....
ReplyDeleteI have one more request for future trades. For one week religious follow my levels and do not hesitate to ask me before taking position. You will note the difference.
It often happen that there are quite a few happening in the market by the time Europe arrives and whole scenario chnges.
Thanks.....
manav, hope you buying levels is around $ 1242-43........
ReplyDeleteHold on until I give a signal..........
Ok Got it, will wait for the stops signal. Appreciate it.
ReplyDeleteNo, its my responsibility to guide you all properly.
ReplyDeleteAt time I am bit harsh in my coments/response, but you have to understand that it is for your good, as I don't want you all to loose money.
It not embarass anyone. This is for everyone.....
Thanks again
I do understand your position Sir, you have a very responsibility. It feels very assuring that you feel this way for all of us even though we are thousands of miles away from each other. It is indeed a pleasure trading with you Sir
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot.
GOLD @ $ 1246 = Off-load your gold position and book profit around $ 1246-48. .......
ReplyDeleteTry to pcik top and Sell gold around $ 1248-50. Stops $ 1253............
ReplyDeleteDid you pick at $ 1248. Gold is loosing its upside momentum...............
ReplyDeleteI sell see GBP Top around 1.6220-30 & Euro Around 1.3530........
ReplyDeleteI mean I still see Top.............
ReplyDeleteSir
ReplyDeleteSL GOLD?
I have already given $ 1253............
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3536 = For new position taker in Euro 1.3555 Stops should be applied...............
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1247 = Ok close gold position around $ 1246-47.........
ReplyDeleteOr if want to hold your gold position, apply your buying level your Stops........
ReplyDeleteEuro @ 1.3535 = I am still expecting Euro to stay below 1.3555 levels for a possible test of 1.3490-00 zones. New position takers should book their profit or take loss if 1.355 is hit.
ReplyDeleteSame message is for the holders of morning position though I always prefre squaruing before I leave.
GOLD @ $ 1246.50 = Strong support around $ 1242-44 zones, only break will see a move towards $ 1237. However, I still see upside risk, Break o$ 1256 is requred to test $ 1260 zones.............
Cheers until next week.......