Asad Rizvi
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not
intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the
members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any
losses incurred due to position
taking.
Traders could not find enough reason to move the market, as it happened to be another dull Monday session in the absence of any major economic data announcement. Though today, it is going to be an active day in terms of economic data release, but all eyes will be on the US Retail sales number for further guidance.
In Europe, focus will remain on economic data release, specially German ZEW is expected to show signs of improvement after recent economic gains. Release of Euro-zone's Industrial production data and ZEW survey too will provide guidance towards regions monetary policy.
Meanwhile, slow growth in Japan may cause delay in hiking sales tax, which is topping market talk agenda. Slow economic recovery also demands BOJ to reconsider more stimulus package, as implementing tax reform at this stage looks inappropriate. I think the importance of sale tax discussion at this point is a clash between more stimulus or implementation of tax reforms as both generates funding. The difference is that sales tax will benefit Japan's debt ridden economy, as the size of debt has grown to 223 pct of the GDP, which is the largest in the world, whereas, stimulus means adding liquidity, but more burden for the economy.
GMT 2:52 - EURO @ 1.3305 = I a expecting 1.3250-60 levels to hold, but Euro needs to break 1.3335-40 levels for a test of 1.3370-75 zones or else another test of 1.3280 is possible, break risk for deeper fall towards 1.3195 on break of 1.3250.
GMT 2:59 - GBP @ 1.5460 = Cable should find support around 1.5430-40 zones, but needs to break 1.5490-95 levels for a test of 1.5515-20 zones, break will encourage for 1.5540 or else 1.5410.
GMT 3:06 - JPY 97.22 = Japanese currency may find resistance to move beyond 96.80-90 zones and could test 97.60, as 97.890 is the crucial level that needs to break for more losses or else test of 96.50-60 levels.
GMT 3:11 - AUD @ 0.9128 = Upside move beyond 0.9150-70 does not look every encouraging, as I will not be surprised to see selling interest on the rise, break of 0.91 risk for test of 0.9070-80 zones.
GMT 3:19 - GOLD @ $ 1334 = Should hold around $ 1337-40 levels for a test of $ 1325 zones. Failing to break below $ 1318-20 risk for another up move, break of $ 1348, would risk for possible test of $ 1366.
GMT 2:59 - GBP @ 1.5460 = Cable should find support around 1.5430-40 zones, but needs to break 1.5490-95 levels for a test of 1.5515-20 zones, break will encourage for 1.5540 or else 1.5410.
GMT 3:06 - JPY 97.22 = Japanese currency may find resistance to move beyond 96.80-90 zones and could test 97.60, as 97.890 is the crucial level that needs to break for more losses or else test of 96.50-60 levels.
GMT 3:11 - AUD @ 0.9128 = Upside move beyond 0.9150-70 does not look every encouraging, as I will not be surprised to see selling interest on the rise, break of 0.91 risk for test of 0.9070-80 zones.
GMT 3:19 - GOLD @ $ 1334 = Should hold around $ 1337-40 levels for a test of $ 1325 zones. Failing to break below $ 1318-20 risk for another up move, break of $ 1348, would risk for possible test of $ 1366.
GMT 2:52 - EURO @ 1.3305 = I a expecting 1.3250-60 levels to hold, but Euro needs to break 1.3335-40 levels for a test of 1.3370-75 zones or else another test of 1.3280 is possible, break risk for deeper fall towards 1.3195 on break of 1.3250.
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.5460 = Cable should find support around 1.5430-40 zones, but needs to break 1.5490-95 levels for a test of 1.5515-20 zones, break will encourage for 1.5540 or else 1.5410
ReplyDeleteJPY 97.22 = Japanese currency may find resistance to move beyond 96.80-90 zones and could test 97.60, as 97.890 is the crucial level that needs to break for more losses or else test of 96.50-60 levels.
ReplyDeleteAUD @ 0.9128 = Upside move beyond 0.9150-70 does not look every encouraging, as I will not be surprised to see selling interest on the rise, break of 0.91 risk for test of 0.9070-80 zones.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1334 = Should hold around $ 1337-40 levels for a test of $ 1325 zones. Failing to break below $ 1318-20 risk for another up move, break of $ 1348, would risk for possible test of $ 1366
Hi sir
ReplyDeleteLong usd/yen close here?
Thanks
Potentially could still test 97.55-60 zones................
ReplyDeletesir
ReplyDeletestill holding USD/JPY and Gold long positions from extreme dips :D
I do not see much beyond 97.90 as my target almost achieved, i would prefer to take profit in JPY instead of overdoing.
ReplyDeleteGold = view is unchagned @ 1340 may have seen the top........
NYK is totally a different ball game....................
sir
ReplyDeleteIf short in EURO.. TP here?
EURO @ 1.3281 = Yes, as per my morning post failure to brea 1.3335 will see a test of 1.3280 that has happend. I am expecting 1.3250-60 to hold for retst and break of 1.33 levels.
ReplyDeleteGBP sir after Negative data going UP so short here ?
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.5460 = Earlier, I have given signal to buy around 1.5430-40. Saw the lows of 1.5435, if went long Cbale, suggest squaring around 1.5460-70 zones and wait for next post............
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.5475 = Take minor risk, sell around 1.5475-85 STOPS 1.5498 for test of 1.5425-35 zones.................
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1332 = Book your profit around $ 1330-32 Cheers...........
ReplyDeletesir where to book profit of short gold??
ReplyDeletepd, refresh the page, I have already given signal to book profit......
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.5455 = i would prefer clsing Cable position before Retaila Sales data. Porrdata will see break of 1.55 for 1.5540.
ReplyDeletesir what about gold after data!!
ReplyDeletePrefered Buying Levels...........
ReplyDeleteEuro @ 1.3262 = around 1.3248-58 STOPS 1.3210
GBP @ 1.5451 = around 1.5440-47 = Stops 1.5405
GOLD @ $ 1331 = around $ 1326-29 Stops $ 1322........
what about gold now view unchanged
ReplyDeleteno change in view. But apply Stops............................
ReplyDeletesir
ReplyDeletewhat happened to GBP a couple of minutes ago ?
1.5443 to 1.5505 and back to 1.5450
Not sure. May be Tech Glitch.
ReplyDeleteBut I am still Bullsih for Cable.......................
my TP and Auto Sell both hit
ReplyDeleteso close short gbp here ?
ok sir Thanks
ReplyDeleteany level to short Yen now ?
Moeen, avoid JPY, US 10-year bond yield has surged sharply by 8 basis point to 2.70 pct, which is not good news for the Japanese currecny. I would wait for market tos ettle down..................
ReplyDeleteYou have already profited on 8-10 tarders today, so stay away ;-)
:D
ReplyDeleteOk sir Thanks
EURO @ 1.3240 Gold @ $ 1327.............
ReplyDeleteSuggest squaring all positions, as I do not want to spoil the day......................
Cheers until tomorrow...................
ReplyDelete