Asad Rizvi
After lot of hard work and injection of liquidity by the Central Banks the two-economies of USA and Europe have started to respond. The big moves that is visible is the US unemployment rate falling to 7.4 pct and now Europe coming out of recession after a long struggle to avoid collapse and yesterday's Eurozone GDP Q2 of 2013 better than expectation is surely encouraging.
The real challenge for US financial managers would be when FED decides to pause before its next move to hike interest rates that may still take time. But Europe is not faced with a similar situation, as has long list of things to be done. 17- European Union countries that uses Euro currency is faced with difficult situation with high unemployment rate of 12.1 pct, fiscal imbalance and challenges faced by regions banking sector are some of the burning issue that can ignite fire anytime and therefore, Europe is still faced with a high risk situation.
The real challenge for US financial managers would be when FED decides to pause before its next move to hike interest rates that may still take time. But Europe is not faced with a similar situation, as has long list of things to be done. 17- European Union countries that uses Euro currency is faced with difficult situation with high unemployment rate of 12.1 pct, fiscal imbalance and challenges faced by regions banking sector are some of the burning issue that can ignite fire anytime and therefore, Europe is still faced with a high risk situation.
Market is still undecided about FED's intention and would be focusing on Fed's Bullard statement for guidance, as yesterday he suggested to for a wait and see approach, which means economic data will be deciding factor. Today all eyes will be on the release of US economic data with a close watch on CPI data.
Meanwhile, Pound Sterling was the real beneficiary after the release of BOE minutes that was taken positively in the sense that it was not too Dovish this time. Drop in unemployment claim also mattered as it should help in easing pressure on jobs, as BOE is targeting unemployment rate at 7 pct that was in line of expectation of 7.8 pct. Hence, buying on dips may could be seen. Strong retail sales data should add to the current sentiment.
GMT GMT 3:04 - GOLD @ $ 1340 = The crucial level is $ 1318-20 for resumption of fall on break of $ 1327. However, we could see gold holding above $ 1333-35 levels for a possible test of $ 1346-50. Break risk for test of $ 1358-60 zones.
GMT 3:16 - EURO @ 1.3295 = Euro could inch up towards 1.3325-30 zones, but needs to break for a test of 1.3355-70 area. Or else, on the downside clear break of 1.3250-55 will pave way for 1.3220.
GMT 3:21 - GBP @ 1.5522 = Cable is buy around 1.5480-90 zones, with Stops on break of 1.5450. Break of 1.5555 could see a move towards 1.5580-90, but beyond that I would refrain from further buying.
GMT 3:26 - JPY @ 97.65 = Yen should find resistance around 97.40-50 and is failing to make further gains would encourage for a quick move towards 97.90-00 zones or else 97.20.
GMT 3:30 - AUD @ 0.9170 = Aussie could hold around 0.9130-40 zones for a move and break of 0.9190-00 levels for possible test of 0.9230-40 or else. 0.9110.
GMT 3:16 - EURO @ 1.3295 = Euro could inch up towards 1.3325-30 zones, but needs to break for a test of 1.3355-70 area. Or else, on the downside clear break of 1.3250-55 will pave way for 1.3220.
GMT 3:21 - GBP @ 1.5522 = Cable is buy around 1.5480-90 zones, with Stops on break of 1.5450. Break of 1.5555 could see a move towards 1.5580-90, but beyond that I would refrain from further buying.
GMT 3:26 - JPY @ 97.65 = Yen should find resistance around 97.40-50 and is failing to make further gains would encourage for a quick move towards 97.90-00 zones or else 97.20.
GMT 3:30 - AUD @ 0.9170 = Aussie could hold around 0.9130-40 zones for a move and break of 0.9190-00 levels for possible test of 0.9230-40 or else. 0.9110.
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not
intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the
members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any
losses incurred due to position
taking.
GMT GMT 3:04 - GOLD @ $ 1340 = The crucial level is $ 1318-20 for resumption of fall on break of $ 1327. However, we could see gold holding above $ 1333-35 levels for a possible test of $ 1346-50. Break risk for test of $ 1358-60 zones.
ReplyDeleteEURO @ 1.3295 = Euro could inch up towards 1.3325-30 zones, but needs to break for a test of 1.3355-70 area. Or else, on the downside clear break of 1.3250-55 will pave way for 1.322
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.5522 = Cable is buy around 1.5480-90 zones, with Stops on break of 1.5450. Break of 1.5555 could see a move towards 1.5580-90, but beyond that I would refrain from further buying.
ReplyDeleteJPY @ 97.65 = Yen should find resistance around 97.40-50 and is failing to make further gains would encourage for a quick move towards 97.90-00 zones or else 97.20.
ReplyDeleteAUD @ 0.9170 = Aussie could hold around 0.9130-40 zones for a move and break of 0.9190-00 levels for possible test of 0.9230-40 or else. 0.9110
ReplyDeleteshould buy gold at cmp with sl 33
ReplyDeleteI will prefer around $ 1332-35 S/L $ 1327.......
ReplyDeleteHi sir
ReplyDeleteNice Start
Where to TP for all long GBP positions ?
Thanks
Cable looking good to test 1.56 and beyond on break of 1.5590-95. Should hold 1.5540-50 levels.......
ReplyDeletesir
ReplyDeleteEURO is not moving much from yesterday
Any particular reason or we have already seen the TOP and ready for a downtrend / correction ?
Thanks
Well, Euro is stuck in ranges because it has already surged on expectation of economic recovery in Euro-zone that is largely because of better economic condition in Germany & France. Both being the top two economies the other 15-members that uses Euro is still faced with numerous problems. Unemployment in the region is still 12.1 pct and the suffering economies does not have sufficient liquidity to counter all the ills. The problem is balance sheet constrain due to which lending to corporate sector becomes tough. This is why ECB wants to continue with its easing forward guidance policy.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand US is in constant recovery path and tapering fear is looming, which negates European recover. This could be one major factor that investors are not keen to put their money in Euro. We do not often here Central Bank buying Euro because they too have mark to market problem at the year end and must be refraining from past bad experience.
Now it’s the traders game that are seen busy in market and must be watching the chart points as crucial level on the down side is 1.3180, which is holding and on the upside failure to move beyond 1.34 convincingly is making life difficult. Taper is certainly the key factor. Howeevr, all is not well.
Well Understand Sir
ReplyDeleteThanks
Sir
ReplyDeleteGBP is hanging between your morning range. USA data expectation is better than previous.
Short here with tight SL ?
No, Cable would be a good buy on dip, as potentially it can hit 1.5635........
ReplyDeleteOn the downside yo will have to watch 1.5520-30.............
JPY @ 98.05 = If Short Yen, suggest taking profit around 98.05-10...........
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1338.50 = is surly running out of gas, if holds below $ 1342, we could see a test of $ 1332-35 zones before release of US data..
ReplyDeleteGold to hopld around $ 1318- 23 and could bounce back. $ 1325-15 should hold.........
ReplyDeleteSorry $ 1312-15 should hold........
ReplyDeleteJPY @ 98.46 = Should hold around 98.80-90 Stops 99.25..........
ReplyDeletewohooo..
ReplyDelete:D
Good profits in Gold and Gbp and YEN sir.. missed Euro
Thankssssssssssss
No problem.................You will get ooportunity looking for gold to bounce back from lows...............
ReplyDeleteGL
sold again aat 1325.37
ReplyDeleteoh myyyy
ReplyDeleteSir
EURO @ 1.3237 = Could terst 1.3190-00 if stays below 1.3260.........
ReplyDeleteAll closed in good profit
ReplyDeleteThanks
Waiting for new signal nowww
GOLD @ $ 1325 = Hope you have purchased gold around $ 1320. Stops break of $ 1312-14 for another uposide test of $ 1330 zones.................
ReplyDeletewhere to trade GBP and AUD again sir ?
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteActivity will remain slow with gradual up move for Us Dollar.....
sell gold at cmp
ReplyDeleteGold @ $ 1328 = book your profit around $ 1328-30.......
ReplyDeleteshould buy usd ?
ReplyDeletewell, do not see any more excitement after the US data, as market should prefer to stay square. i will not be surprised to see Gold coming under pressure and may top around $ 1332. Only break would see test $ 1338-40.
ReplyDeleteonly Cbale & Yen will have firmer tone. This I have been saying since moring, but strong USD may not see see big gains..........
Ok pals, end of a great profitable week.
ReplyDeleteHope all did well this week........
Have a nice weekend................................
Many Thanks Sir
ReplyDelete