Asad Rizvi
Market continued to debate Bernanke's Boston speech. It seems that there is no consensus yet on Fed's next line of action and this is Fed's achievement, as they look successful in mentally preparing the market for it's next move. Fed members will continue to through their idea's on the possibility of reducing its asset purchase plan until it announces it's plan to act.
Such a strategy should help Feds cause, as it may not have larger impact in the market and may simultaneously help in reducing the volatility. So be prepared for more statements from FED officials and try to catch/stay with the trend because all Fed members do not carry identical written notes and will not speak same language and therefore, views will differ. Remember its the final vote that will counts, rests is all talking. Though my count for Fed votes shows tilt towards tapering.
Such a strategy should help Feds cause, as it may not have larger impact in the market and may simultaneously help in reducing the volatility. So be prepared for more statements from FED officials and try to catch/stay with the trend because all Fed members do not carry identical written notes and will not speak same language and therefore, views will differ. Remember its the final vote that will counts, rests is all talking. Though my count for Fed votes shows tilt towards tapering.
The stock may have jumped, gold took a breather and the US Dollar may have fallen, but 10-year bond yield is still hovering around 2.58 pct, despite poor US initial jobs claim numbers. In my yesterday's note I said to keep a close watch on 10-year US Treasuries and the maturity gap between short/long for more guidance. If yield fails o fall below 2.50 pct, the bearish spell will be short lived.
Meanwhile, Euro regions economy that is showing signs of nervousness and remains shaky due to economic misery in the Euro zone and if industrial production falls today, this may not bode well for the ECB planners working on the possibility of easing rate could help in halting the short Euro rally that also got boost after minor rise of US initial jobless claims.
GMT 2:20 - EURO @ 1.3087 = I would still like to a break above 1.3110-20 for a move towards 1.3160 or else failure will encourage for a test and break of 1.3040-50 zones will threaten to challenge 1.3005-10 levels.
GMT 2:29 - GBP @ 1.5178 = The key is 1.5140-50 levels. If holds, Cable could test and surpass 1.5210-20 levels for 1.52540-40 zones. Or else 1.5090.
GMT 2: 34 - JPY 99.04 = It looks difficult to break 99.40-50 zones, which increases risk for a test of 98.25levels. Break could mean larger Yen gains or else .99.70.
GMT 2:39 - AUD @ 0.9174 = At moment 0.9220-40 looks difficult to crack, as Aussie may not surpass 0.92 levels, increasing risk for a test of 0.9110 levels, break will encourage for a move towards 0.9040.
GMT 2:46 - GOLD @ $ 1284.70 = Strong support around $ 1278-80 may hold and and risk for test of $ 1295-98 zones, Unless fall below $ 1274-75. Bias is on the upside before exhausting.
DISCLAMER : The commentary/information presented is not intended for trading purpose. The idea is to exchange views with the members/readers. Therefore, I accept no responsibility or liability for any losses incurred due to position taking.
EURO @ 1.3087 = I would still like to a break above 1.3110-20 for a move towards 1.3160 or else failure will encourage for a test and break of 1.3040-50 zones will threaten to challenge 1.3005-10 levels.
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.5178 = The key is 1.5140-50 levels. If holds, Cable could test and surpass 1.5210-20 levels for 1.52540-40 zones. Or else 1.5090
ReplyDeleteJPY 99.04 = It looks difficult to break 99.40-50 zones, which increases risk for a test of 98.25levels. Break could mean larger Yen gains or else .99.70
ReplyDeleteAUD @ 0.9174 = At moment 0.9220-40 looks difficult to crack, as Aussie may not surpass 0.92 levels, increasing risk for a test of 0.9110 levels, break will encourage for a move towards 0.9040
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1284.70 = Strong support around $ 1278-80 may hold and and risk for test of $ 1295-98 zones, Unless fall below $ 1274-75. Bias is on the upside before exhausting.
ReplyDeleteGold @ $ 1280 = Could further dip..........
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1281 = I still see gold testing $ 1275-77 levels. Should cap around $ 1282-83 and $ 1286 should not surrender...............
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1277 = Book your profit around $ 1275-77. & Gold long around $ 1273-75. Stops $ 1269..Cheers
ReplyDeleteGBP @ 1.5040 = wait for another 10-15 pip drop before buying.may tset 1.5017-25 area............
ReplyDeletegold view same buy at 74 sl 69
ReplyDeleteYes, view on gold is unchanged.Buy lows..............
ReplyDeletesir what about gold now??
ReplyDeleteWait & watch..........
ReplyDeleteview remain same about currencies and gold ?
ReplyDeletelu
ReplyDeletei holding long in gold ok holdposition ok sir
sir why aud so week??
ReplyDeleteGold @ 1273 = Offload around $ 1273-74 before data
ReplyDeletepd, yesterday I told you AUDi party is over and today my target 0.9040 hit. Not sure how many of you have taken position in Aussie.
ReplyDeleteIts is purely due to weak economic condintion that has increased chances of rate cut.................
GOLD @ $ 1274.20 = Sqaure gold position, as I am not clear about next direction...........
ReplyDeleteif fails to move beyond $ 1276-78, could see more losses.........
Gold down USD up
ReplyDeleteEuro needs to clear 1.3060-70 zones for more gains, which may not happen & could drift towards 1.30.
ReplyDeleteGold needs to move beyond $ 1276-78 or esle test of $ 1266-68 possible..........
sold 1274 stop loss 1279 ?
ReplyDeleteGOLD @ $ 1275 = I am sensing one risk today. I have noted that on Friday's in NYK gold make sharp upside rally after dip. I therefore doubt that there is much on the downside & I will not be surprised to see gold bouncing bachk from $ 1272-74 levels to-wards $ 1282-85 levels.
ReplyDeleteThe next key level on the downside is $ 1265-67. So better watchout. Try to pick on dip..........
This is why I said earlier that I am nor clear about the direction.
sell gold 82 ok sir what next in gold
ReplyDeleteGold could still hit $ 1285-88 zones, before cooling down.............
ReplyDeleteMarket will remian choppy for the rest of the day.........
Ok pals, have a nice weekend....................
ReplyDelete